Molde vs Rosenborg
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<html> <head><title>Molde vs Rosenborg: Tactical Trends, Odds and Key Matchups</title></head> <body> <h2>Molde vs Rosenborg: Form, Injuries and What the Odds Say</h2> <p>Aker Stadion hosts one of Norway’s most storied rivalries as Molde welcome Rosenborg. The stakes are layered: Molde are scrapping to climb out of the bottom half, while Rosenborg chase a top-eight finish with European implications. The market prices Molde as slight favourites around 2.00, but there are structural factors that suggest a split game—Rosenborg fast out of the blocks, Molde finishing stronger.</p> <h3>Form Trajectories and League Context</h3> <p>Both sides are out of rhythm. Over the last eight league games, each has collected just six points. Molde’s overall points per game is down to 1.15 (home 1.46), and Rosenborg check in at 1.38 (away 1.15). The form table paints them as near-equals at the moment, but venue splits matter: Molde’s home scoring rate (1.62) is decent, and the Blue-clad side show a pronounced second-half surge at Aker Stadium. Rosenborg’s away defense is leaky (1.92 GA), which has inflated goal totals on their travels.</p> <h3>Injury Ledger and Squad Notes</h3> <p>Molde are set to be without goalkeeper Jacob Karlstrøm (knock), forcing reliance on deputies between the posts. Midfielder Kristian Eriksen (groin) is doubtful. For Rosenborg, fullback Aslak Fonn Witry and playmaker Ole Selnæs remain out, affecting their right flank stability and midfield control. Despite the absences, both clubs are expected to field strong elevens. Rosenborg’s attack leans on the form of Dino Islamović (12 league goals), while Molde’s goal threat is shared across Fredrik Gulbrandsen and emerging contributor Jalal Abdulai.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchups and Goal-Timing Patterns</h3> <p>Set aside league position and focus on when these teams score and concede. Rosenborg tend to start faster away from home: they’ve led at half-time in 46% of their away fixtures and have an average “first goal scored” minute of 17. Molde, conversely, have conceded the first goal at home in 54% of matches and show a worrying early-concession tendency (average minute conceded first 19).</p> <p>But the plot turns after the interval. Molde at Aker are a different animal in the second half: 12 scored, just 4 conceded after half-time. Rosenborg’s late-game defense falters—the Trondheim club have shipped 12 goals in the 76–90 minute band across the season, and 6 of those late concessions have come away. That mismatch points towards a first half where Rosenborg can threaten, followed by a back-end where Molde seize control.</p> <h3>Set Pieces, Corners and Physical Conditions</h3> <p>Corner volumes trend high for both (Molde home matches average 10.62 corners; Rosenborg overall 10.73). Light drizzle and cool temperatures (6–9°C) could slow the tempo, but Eliteserien’s set-piece reliance in autumn matches remains relevant. Molde’s aerial delivery and Rosenborg’s defensive reshuffles without Witry add variance in dead-ball phases.</p> <h3>Market View: Where the Value Lies</h3> <p>Match winner at near evens for Molde feels fair but not compelling given their three-game losing run and fragile first halves. The smarter angles sit in derivatives that reflect the flow asymmetry: - Highest scoring half: second half looks underpriced at 1.85. - Team to score last: Molde at 1.75 aligns with the 76–90 splits. - First half winner: Rosenborg at 3.65 is a live price given Molde’s HT profile. - Under 3.5 at 1.57 fits both teams’ season-long totals (each around 2.8–2.9 goals per game) and the weather outlook. </p> <h3>Key Players to Watch</h3> <p>For Rosenborg, Islamović’s holdup play and penalty-box timing will test a Molde back line that has oscillated between compact and chaotic. Marius Broholm has contributed five league goals from midfield and can find late runs beyond the forwards. For Molde, Emil Breivik’s two-way engine and Magnus Wolff Eikrem’s passing range (if involved) are vital to unlocking a Rosenborg defense that tires late. Fredrik Gulbrandsen remains a reliable finisher, especially as games stretch.</p> <h3>Prediction Snapshot</h3> <p>Expect Rosenborg to threaten early and Molde to mount pressure after the break. A draw is live, with 1-1 a plausible outcome if Molde’s late push cancels Rosenborg’s early edge. If there’s a decisive moment, it likely falls to Molde after 70 minutes.</p> </body> </html>
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