Ham-Kam vs Haugesund
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<html> <head> <title>HamKam vs Haugesund – Betting Preview, Odds and Tactical Guide</title> <meta charset="utf-8" /> </head> <body> <h2>HamKam vs Haugesund: Form, Numbers, and Where the Value Lies</h2> <p>Briskeby hosts a high-stakes Eliteserien clash as HamKam welcome bottom club Haugesund. With HamKam sitting 12th on 34 points and Haugesund stranded on 9 at the foot of the table, the statistical gulf by venue and current trend lines is stark. Betting markets have moved towards the hosts, but there remain angles that look mispriced.</p> <h3>Context and Motivation</h3> <p>HamKam’s recent body of work has been trending up: 13 points from their last eight league matches place them fifth in the recent form table. Haugesund sit last over the same span with just three points. The visitors’ away table returns are grim: 4 points from 14 away matches, and 12 losses. While end-of-season motivation can be a wild card, each team’s underlying numbers are consistent with the league table.</p> <h3>Venue Dynamics: Briskeby Matters</h3> <p>HamKam collect 1.50 PPG at home and score 1.57 goals per home game. That’s a significant advantage against Haugesund’s away returns (0.29 PPG, 0.79 GF, 2.50 GA). The visitors are yet to keep an away clean sheet. The overwhelming away frailty is the central pillar of any bet construction for this fixture.</p> <h3>Form Trajectory and Sustainability</h3> <p>HamKam’s last-eight averages show 1.75 GF (+36% vs season) and 1.25 GA (-20%). These are not one-off spikes; results include strong home outputs (4–0 vs Rosenborg, 2–1 vs Vålerenga, 3–1 vs Sandefjord). Haugesund’s only bright spot recently was a 4–1 away win at KFUM Oslo; otherwise, the trend is heavy defeats and late concessions. That isolated spike looks more like variance than a reset of team quality.</p> <h3>Goal Timing and Game State Patterns</h3> <p>Both sides skew towards more action after halftime. Haugesund have conceded 42 of their 71 goals in the second half, including 20 between minutes 76–90 – a clear late-game collapse pattern. HamKam’s concessions also tilt late (59% after the break). This informs a strong lean toward second-half overs and “2nd half highest scoring half.”</p> <h3>Tactics and Mismatches</h3> <p>HamKam’s home approach has been front-foot: they tend to score early (average first goal at 21’ at home) and create from wide areas, with overlapping full-backs and direct service into the box. Haugesund’s transitional defending away from home has been fragile, especially once they fall behind. Their equalizing rate away is just 25% and they average 0.08 PPG when conceding first – indicative of poor game state management.</p> <h3>Key Players and Prop Angles</h3> <p>Kristian Strømland Lien leads HamKam’s line with eight league goals and a solid shot profile (53 total, 31 on target). With Haugesund conceding 2.50 per away game and having no away clean sheets, Lien’s anytime scorer price around 1.91 has merit. Creative contributions from Ylldren Ibrahimaj and width from the wing-backs should generate high-quality looks for the centre-forward channel.</p> <h3>Over/Under, BTTS and Combinations</h3> <p>HamKam’s home profile screams goals: 71% over 2.5 and 79% BTTS at Briskeby. Haugesund’s away profile is more mixed (64% over 2.5, 50% BTTS), but recent uptick in goals scored and their second-half collapses keep 3–1 and 4–1 scripts very live. Punters looking for bigger prices could consider Home/Over 3.5 at 2.62; it aligns with the match’s “open late” tendencies.</p> <h3>Market Prices vs True Chances</h3> <ul> <li>HamKam -1 Asian (1.57): Fair 1.48–1.52 given Haugesund’s away goal difference and 86% away losses.</li> <li>2nd Half Over 1.5 (1.70): Fair around 1.60–1.66 based on combined 2H totals and late-goal patterns.</li> <li>HT HamKam (1.77): Numbers point near 1.67–1.73; small edge.</li> <li>BTTS Yes (1.62): HamKam’s 79% BTTS home lifts this above market’s implied 61.7% – modest plus-EV.</li> </ul> <h3>Red Flags</h3> <p>HamKam’s lead-defending rate is only 55% at home (below league average), so backdoors are possible. Haugesund did notch a big away win recently – caution on extreme scorelines. The best way to mitigate is via Asian handicap (-1) to capture a push if HamKam “only” win by one.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>All roads point to HamKam superiority at Briskeby. The matchup, venue splits, and timing dynamics favour a home win with a busy second half. Preferred staking order: HamKam -1 AH, 2H Over 1.5, HT HamKam, and BTTS Yes for those expecting a 3–1 type outcome. Lien anytime is a fair prop to round out exposure.</p> </body> </html>
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