Start vs Kongsvinger

<div> <h2>Start vs Kongsvinger: Form, Firepower and a Second-Half Tilt</h2> <p>Sparebanken Sør Arena welcomes a pivotal 1. Division contest as second-placed Start host fourth-placed Kongsvinger. Both clubs sit firmly in the promotion race, and with a two-week rest since their last league outings, this should be high-tempo and high-quality—especially after Start’s emphatic 3-0 away win in the reverse fixture at the end of July.</p> <h3>Form and Venue Dynamics</h3> <p>Start’s home profile is robust: 1.90 points per game, 2.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded on average. Their recent trajectory is encouraging—points per game across the last eight lifted to 2.00, with goals against trimmed to 1.00. Kongsvinger’s away profile is less convincing (1.30 PPG, 1.70 GF, 1.60 GA), and their last-eight defensive trend has softened: goals conceded up nearly 20% to 1.88 per match.</p> <p>Layer in market-relevant splits and you get a goals-friendly environment. Start’s home matches finish Over 2.5 at an 80% clip; Kongsvinger’s away at 70%. Both teams’ “BTTS” rates by venue are elevated (Start home 70%, KIL away 80%). It’s not hard to understand why totals traders lean to the over.</p> <h3>Momentum and Match Flow</h3> <p>The flow-shaping stat is second-half dominance. Start score a massive 68% of their home goals after halftime (15 for, 5 against), while Kongsvinger’s away matches also lean second-half heavy (10 for, 9 against). Crucially, Kongsvinger have a habit of fading late away from home, conceding 5 in the 76-90 segment. This dovetails with another key situational metric: Kongsvinger defend away leads successfully just 33% of the time, whereas Start protect home leads at 75%—a stark contrast that could define the closing stages.</p> <h3>Tactical Angles and Key Players</h3> <p>Start’s mids and forwards are in sync. Eirik Schulze drives chance creation and chipped in a goal in July’s 3-0 at Kongsvinger; Håkon Lorentzen struck a brace that day and remains a focal point. Mikael Ugland adds late bursts from midfield and has two goals and two assists in 10 apps. Expect Start to accelerate after the interval, pressing fullbacks and attacking the half-spaces where Kongsvinger have been vulnerable.</p> <p>Kongsvinger’s threat is very real going the other way. Lucas Haren’s output—12 league goals in 14—makes him one of the division’s most in-form attackers, with Joacim Holtan complementing as a penalty-box finisher. Kongsvinger can score first (60% away) and do break quickly; but the underlying concern is game management once ahead.</p> <h3>Context, Motivation and Conditions</h3> <p>Start’s supporters are buoyed by the recent 3-0 H2H and by the club’s summer upgrades in attack. Kongsvinger’s fanbase remains optimistic about their forward line but accept that defensive lapses are limiting their ceiling, especially away. Both squads are expected to be near full strength, and early-September conditions in Kristiansand should favor crisp, attacking football.</p> <h3>Where the Odds Look Soft</h3> <ul> <li>Start Over 1.5 team goals around 1.80 aligns with a 70% historical hit rate at home this season, plus a weakening Kongsvinger defensive trend. That’s a fair value punch.</li> <li>Over 2.5 goals at 1.50 remains playable given both sides’ venue-specific overs (80%/70%).</li> <li>Second-half Over 1.5 at 1.67 fits the strong post-HT production on both sides and Kongsvinger’s late concessions.</li> <li>Highest scoring half: 2nd (1.95) leverages the same flow and looks a touch generous.</li> <li>Anytime Lucas Haren (2.88) is a live underdog angle: elite current form plus an 80% BTTS away profile increases his path to scoring.</li> </ul> <h3>Predicted Pattern</h3> <p>Kongsvinger may threaten in transition and could even land the first blow, but the data says Start grow into games and finish stronger. Expect a lively second half with Start generating multiple big chances. A 2-1 or 3-1 home result fits the statistical profile, with Haren dangerous for the visitors and Lorentzen/Schulze spearheading Start’s response.</p> <h3>Bottom Line</h3> <p>Start have the venue edge, better late-game metrics, and a recent psychological win in this matchup. With markets still offering reasonable prices on Start 2+ goals and second-half production, the value concentrates around the home attack and late-scoring angles.</p> </div>