Ranheim vs Mjondalen
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<html> <head> <title>Ranheim vs Mjøndalen Preview, Odds and Picks</title> </head> <body> <h2>Match Context</h2> <p>Ranheim welcome Mjøndalen to EXTRA Arena with the hosts sitting 7th and the visitors 15th. Playoff whispers remain alive for Ranheim; for Mjøndalen, the conversation is about survival. Conditions in Ranheim are set to be cool and damp, a slick surface that typically increases error rates and helps goals.</p> <h2>Form and Trajectories</h2> <p>Ranheim’s last-eight stretch has been steady in points but notably wilder in profile: goals for up nearly 15%, goals against up over 33%. That matches the eye test: a 5-2 thumping of Åsane and a 3-2 win at Start punctuated by a heavy 0-4 home loss to Egersund. They score in bunches, concede in flurries.</p> <p>Mjøndalen, by contrast, are trending down. They average 0.50 ppg in their last eight, with three goals conceded per game and a brutal 0-6 home defeat to Aalesund just days ago. There was a stirring 3-2 away win at Åsane, but defensive frailty remains the dominant theme.</p> <h2>Tactical Tendencies and Matchup</h2> <ul> <li>Ranheim are second-half merchants: 65% of their goals come after the break, with a big surge in the final quarter-hour.</li> <li>Mjøndalen concede late and often: 15 goals allowed from 76-90’ this season. When they tire, gaps appear in the channels and around set pieces.</li> <li>Game state matters: Ranheim’s lead-defending rate is elite (83-85%), and Mjøndalen concede first in 72% of matches.</li> </ul> <p>This cocktail makes a Ranheim-first, second-half-heavy script likely: hosts gain control, the game stretches late, and both sides find second-half chances.</p> <h2>Numbers That Matter</h2> <ul> <li>Ranheim home clean sheets: 8%. Opponents have scored in 12 of 13 home matches.</li> <li>Mjøndalen away goals against: 2.38 per match; over 3.5 lands in 69% of away games (64% overall vs league 40%).</li> <li>Ranheim home over 2.5: 69%; Mjøndalen away BTTS: 69%.</li> </ul> <p>These are robust, late-season sample sizes. They support both teams to register and a strong lean to high totals.</p> <h2>Key Players and Edges</h2> <p>For Ranheim, Áki Samuelsen’s recent penalties and involvement in high-leverage moments add appeal, while Mikael Tørset Johnsen and Seydina Diop have been central to chance creation and finishing. Mjøndalen will rely on experience to find moments in transition; they do create sporadically, but their bigger issue is protecting the box under sustained pressure.</p> <h2>Market View and Value</h2> <p>Books have moved Ranheim short on the moneyline (1.40), but the bigger mistakes are lurking elsewhere. Ranheim’s 8% home clean sheet rate is not reflected in “Away Team to Score – Yes” at 1.50. That’s a standout. Mjøndalen’s extreme over-3.5 profile also looks underpriced at 2.15, especially with Ranheim’s defensive trend worsening of late.</p> <p>With both teams’ goals skewing later, the second-half over 1.5 at 1.65 fits the data and projected flow. If you prefer a bolder angle, Home/BTTS at 2.62 leverages Ranheim’s win likelihood and their porous defense, though variance is higher.</p> <h2>The Oracle’s Verdict</h2> <ul> <li>Away Team to Score – Yes (1.50): Best price-to-probability edge on the board.</li> <li>Over 3.5 Goals (2.15): Mjøndalen’s totals skew is an outlier the market hasn’t fully priced.</li> <li>Second Half Over 1.5 (1.65): Late action likely in a stretched game state.</li> <li>Home/BTTS (2.62): Correlated outcome with a plus number.</li> </ul> <p>Expect Ranheim to dictate, Mjøndalen to contribute to the scoreline, and the second half to carry the drama.</p> </body> </html>
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