Raufoss vs Mjondalen
Match Information
Match Preview
<html> <head> <title>Raufoss vs Mjøndalen – Match Preview and Betting Guide</title> <meta name="description" content="OBOS-ligaen preview: Raufoss host Mjøndalen at Nammo Stadion with survival points on the line. Form, stats, odds and key tactical notes."> </head> <body> <h1>Raufoss vs Mjøndalen: Survival Scrap with Goal Upside</h1> <h2>Context and Stakes</h2> <p>Raufoss (13th) welcome Mjøndalen (15th) to Nammo Stadion in a genuine six-pointer near the bottom of Norway’s 1. Division. With only a handful of matchdays left, both sides are hunting crucial points to steer clear of deeper relegation trouble. Sentiment around both clubs is subdued: last season was a struggle and 2025 has not offered a clear uptick. Continuity has trumped overhaul in both camps, and that has meant familiar strengths and familiar flaws.</p> <h2>Form Snapshot</h2> <p>Raufoss finally snapped a grim run with a 4-1 win away to Skeid, but the broader picture remains choppy: six losses in the last eight with a rising goals against trend. Mjøndalen have shown flashes—a rousing 3-2 win over Stabæk and a 1-1 draw with Odd—but their defensive numbers are harsh, with 2.46 goals conceded per game on the season and 2.75 across the last eight.</p> <h2>Tactical Tendencies</h2> <p>Raufoss at home typically build through midfield runners like Ryan Nelson, using diagonal entries to get strikers attacking the box. They start fairly fast—average minute of first goal scored sits at 21’—but the real tactical story is their second-half vulnerability: 61% of their concessions come after the interval, and they’ve allowed 14 goals in the 76–90’ segment.</p> <p>Mjøndalen are mobile in transition and carry late threat (eight goals in the 76–90’ window). Out of possession, though, they’ve been too loose between the lines, which is why they concede early and often. Their away GA of 2.43 per match invites the hosts on.</p> <h2>Key Numbers That Matter</h2> <ul> <li>Total goals per game: Raufoss 3.43; Mjøndalen 3.68.</li> <li>Over 2.5 hit rates: Raufoss 71%; Mjøndalen 68%.</li> <li>BTTS: Raufoss 71%; Mjøndalen 68% (venue: both at 64%).</li> <li>Second-half intensity: Raufoss 2H goals (GF+GA) 1.86 per match; Mjøndalen 1.93.</li> </ul> <p>Those splits set the stage for a high-probability overs environment, with added upside late given both teams’ habit of conceding in the closing quarter-hour.</p> <h2>Projected X-Factors</h2> <p>For Raufoss, Kebba Badjie and Erlend Hustad are credible threats—both registered recently—while Ryan Nelson contributes both on and off the ball as a carrier and shooter (three goals this season). For Mjøndalen, Jonas Bruusgaard and Ebrima Sawaneh offer moments that can flip game state even when they’re second-best territorially.</p> <h2>Weather and Match Rhythm</h2> <p>Expect cool, late-autumn conditions (3–7°C) and possibly light rain. OBOS fixtures rarely die because of the weather; the ball may zip off the surface and feed the transition patterns that both teams already show, especially if either side chases the game early.</p> <h2>Odds and Value</h2> <p>The market leans to Raufoss (1.70), but the sharper value lies in goals. Over 2.5 at 1.62 sits below my fair line, backed by both teams’ over profiles and defensive leakage. BTTS at 1.65 also prices well against strong season-long rates. Given the late-goal distributions, Second Half Over 1.5 at 1.85 is a standout. If you want a higher price, Over 3.5 at 2.50 captures the volatility of two leaky backlines.</p> <h2>The Oracle’s Verdict</h2> <p>Expect an open, error-strewn contest with momentum swings. Raufoss have the better platform at home, but Mjøndalen’s late scoring makes this feel more like an overs game than a reliable 1x2. Bet the totals and lean into second-half action.</p> </body> </html>
Betting Odds
Odds are currently unavailable.
Odds are provided for informational purposes. Please gamble responsibly.
AI Analysis & Predictions
Get comprehensive AI-powered analysis for this match with our advanced prediction models. Our AI considers team form, head-to-head records, player statistics, and real-time data to provide accurate insights.
- Real-time match predictions
- In-depth statistical analysis
- Live odds monitoring
- Expert betting insights