Motor Lublin vs Radomiak Radom

<div> <h2>Motor Lublin vs Radomiak Radom: Data Points Favor the Hosts’ Floor</h2> <p>Motor Lublin welcome Radomiak Radom to Arena Lublin in Round 10 with venue trends and form-paths pointing toward the hosts avoiding defeat. While both teams sit mid-pack early on, the underlying split between Motor at home and Radomiak on the road is stark—and that underpins the best value angles this week.</p> <h3>Venue Splits: Fortress Lublin vs Travel Sick Radomiak</h3> <p>At home, Motor average 1.67 points per game and have conceded just 0.33 goals per game with 67% clean sheets. Away, Radomiak average a mere 0.25 PPG, concede 2.75 goals per game and spend 52% of game time trailing. Crucially, their away lead-defending rate sits at 0%—they’ve not kept a lead on the road when getting in front. That’s a strong signal for Motor “Draw No Bet” and “Motor to score first.”</p> <h3>Flow and Timing: Expect More After the Interval</h3> <p>Both sides skew toward second-half action. Motor have 56% of their goals after half-time and 58% of goals conceded after the break; Radomiak score 67% after HT and are particularly dangerous late (four goals in the 76–90’ window). Those patterns elevate “Highest Scoring Half: Second Half” and a cautious look at second-half goal lines.</p> <h3>Form Trajectory and Context</h3> <p>Radomiak’s last eight matches show regression versus season: points per game down 18%, goals for down 25%, goals against up 5.6%. They did steady with a 1–0 home win against Piast, but away form remains poor with three straight defeats, including 4–1 at Legia and 3–0 at Korona. Motor’s last eight are steady with season figures, unbeaten in three and robust at home.</p> <h3>Team News and Key Personnel</h3> <p>Motor will be without centre-back Arkadiusz Najemski (knee, mid-October), and Kacper Plichta is doubtful. Even so, keeper Ivan Brkić’s outstanding early-season displays (7.55 rating, 23 saves in six starts) underpin a strong home defensive base. Creative hubs Bartosz Wolski (20 key passes) and Ivo Rodrigues (duel win monster) supply runners like Karol Czubak (recent goals) and Mbaye Ndiaye (2G, 1A).</p> <p>Radomiak travel with a full squad. Jan Grzesik (4 league goals from fullback) is a key threat, with Capita and Roberto Alves adding incision. However, the center-back unit’s away numbers are worrying, and the side’s road-state metrics (time trailing, first conceded) remain a drag.</p> <h3>Totals and BTTS: A Clash of Profiles</h3> <p>Motor home matches are extremely low event (1.00 total goals, 0/3 over 2.5), whereas Radomiak away games are high event (3.75 total goals, 75% over 2.5). The market has shaded to goals, but Motor’s control at home and Radomiak’s road frailty suggest Under 3.5 as a solid safety anchor. For greater value, Under 2.5 at ~2.08 is enticing, especially if Motor get in front and squeeze the game.</p> <h3>Best Bets and Value</h3> <ul> <li>Motor DNB (1.62): The clearest statistical lean given venue form and Radomiak’s away woes.</li> <li>Motor to score first (1.80): Motor haven’t conceded first at home; Radomiak concede first 75% away.</li> <li>Highest scoring half: 2nd (2.05): Both sides’ attacking output escalates after the break.</li> <li>Under 3.5 (1.40): Motor’s home suppression keeps scorelines lower.</li> <li>Longshot: Motor 1–0 exact (9.00): Correlates with home defensive edge and chance-suppression profile.</li> </ul> <h3>Tactical Snapshot</h3> <p>Motor should keep a compact mid-block, using Wolski and Rodrigues between lines to spring Czubak/Ndiaye. Radomiak’s fullbacks push high—Grzesik is a scoring outlet—but that invites transition space. If Motor strike first, Radomiak’s away-state data suggests difficulty reversing momentum. Expect a tighter first half and more swing after HT.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Motor Lublin 1–0 Radomiak Radom, with the hosts to avoid defeat as the baseline, and the second half to carry more event volume.</p> </div>