Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS

<div> <h2>Örgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS: Form, Edges and Where the Value Lies</h2> <p>Gamla Ullevi, Gothenburg hosts an intriguing Superettan clash as leaders Örgryte welcome eighth-placed Landskrona. With the season deep into the run-in, the numbers are now robust—and they point strongly toward the home side, albeit with angles on late goals and defensive superiority that can inform smart betting.</p> <h3>Context and Motivation</h3> <p>Örgryte sit top with 51 points from 24 matches, riding a four-match winning streak and a 10-match unbeaten run. Their last two outings were shutouts, underlining improved defensive solidity. Landskrona, meanwhile, are winless in three and haven’t scored in that stretch, though they remain competitive overall and sit mid-table with 34 points. Fan sentiment around the visitors is anxious: recent head-to-heads have tilted towards Örgryte, and supporters seek a reaction after a bruising 0–4 at Utsikten.</p> <h3>Venue Advantage: Gamla Ullevi Factor</h3> <p>At home, Örgryte’s metrics are elite: 2.25 points per game, 67% wins, and a commanding 2.58 goals for to 0.75 against. They score first in two-thirds of home games and defend those leads 73% of the time, spending 46% of minutes leading. Landskrona’s away profile is middling at best (1.25 PPG, 1.25 GF/1.58 GA). Importantly, away opponents score first 58% of the time, and when Landskrona concede first on the road, they collect just 0.29 PPG—hardly the profile of a comeback side.</p> <h3>Flow of the Match: Expect More After the Interval</h3> <p>Both sides skew toward second-half action. Örgryte generate 62% of their goals after the break (home 20 GF/5 GA in 2H), while Landskrona produce 68% overall in 2H and concede heavily late away (six goals allowed 76–90’). That aligns with Örgryte’s own late pressure (nine home goals in the final quarter-hour). Weather is forecast to be cold and wet, typically suppressing early tempo and encouraging a more cagey opening—another point in favor of second-half goal markets.</p> <h3>Form Trajectories and Underlying Indicators</h3> <p>Örgryte’s last eight matches show a step up in defensive output: goals against are down 25% compared to their season average (0.75 vs 1.00). Landskrona’s attack in the same span has dipped to 0.75 goals per game (down 41.9%), with three straight blanks backing up the trend. Örgryte also lead the last-8 form table with 20 points, while Landskrona are in the middle pack with 11.</p> <h3>Key Players and Tactics</h3> <p>Örgryte’s engine room is powered by Amel Mujanić (7.65 average rating, 5 assists) and Isak Dahlqvist (3G, 5A), who carry the ball well and create between the lines. Finishing has come late through Noah Christoffersson and Tobias Sana—Christoffersson has scored key late winners across the last month. Defensively, veteran Mikael Dyrestam marshals a backline that has tightened up, supported by improved goalkeeping. Landskrona will look to keeper Marcus Pettersson and defender Rassa Rahmani for stability; striker Edi Sylisufaj remains their most likely scorer, but service has dried up recently.</p> <h3>Market Assessment and Value</h3> <ul> <li>Home Win (1.55): The price implies ~64.5% probability. Örgryte’s 67% home win rate, superior form and Landskrona’s scoring slump make this a justified favorite with a small edge.</li> <li>BTTS No (2.25): Örgryte home clean sheets at 50%, visitors failed to score in 33% of away games and in three straight overall. The price implies ~44%—we rate it higher.</li> <li>Second Half Over 1.5 (1.75): Both teams’ second halves average ≥1.8–2.1 goals; late goals trend meets the weather/tempo narrative.</li> <li>Örgryte -1 Asian (1.90): Örgryte’s home average margin is approximately +1.83, offering a decent push/win structure.</li> <li>Home Clean Sheet Yes (2.62): Strong value vs a 50% baseline and the visitors’ drought.</li> </ul> <h3>Projected Script</h3> <p>Expect Örgryte to control territory and possession, probing down the flanks through Dahlqvist and Mujanić, with Christoffersson and Sana threatening late. Landskrona are likely to sit compact and counter, but their recent lack of end product is a concern, especially against a host defending well and excellent at seeing out leads.</p> <h3>Best Bet and Final Word</h3> <p>The best blend of probability and price is the Home Win at 1.55, supplemented by BTTS No at 2.25 for value and Second-Half Over 1.5 at 1.75 to ride both clubs’ late-goal tendencies. For bolder punters, Örgryte -1 (1.90) and Home Clean Sheet (2.62) capture upside the raw 1x2 doesn’t. In a cold, possibly wet Gothenburg, the league leaders’ structure and late-game punch should tell.</p> </div>