FC Fredericia vs Vejle
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<html> <head><title>Fredericia vs Vejle – Data-Led Match Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Fredericia vs Vejle: Form, Odds and Tactical Outlook</h2> <p>Fredericia welcome Vejle to Monjasa Park on September 15, 2025 (17:00 UTC) in a Superliga clash pitting an upwardly mobile newcomer against a side already mired in early-season trouble. The betting markets rate this close—Home 2.50, Draw 3.40, Away 2.55—but the underlying data hint at edges the prices may not fully capture.</p> <h3>Context and Sentiment</h3> <p>Fredericia sit 6th with 10 points (3-1-3), a solid start to life after promotion. At home they’ve been lively—two wins from four—including a tidy 1-0 over Randers and a dramatic 3-2 against SønderjyskE. Vejle are 12th with 4 points (1-1-5), and pressure is mounting. The off-season rebuild hasn’t settled; supporters and local media have voiced concern about the trajectory despite the club keeping faith with the current manager.</p> <h3>Key Numbers That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>Vejle away PPG: 0.00; failed to score in 67% of away games.</li> <li>Vejle have conceded first in 100% of away matches, with the first goal arriving around minute 6 on average.</li> <li>Fredericia have scored first in 75% of home matches and carry a strong second-half scoring profile (67% of home goals after HT).</li> <li>Fredericia home corners average 12.5; three-quarters of their home games clear 10.5 corners.</li> </ul> <h3>Tactical Matchup</h3> <p>Fredericia’s front four rotation—Gustav Marcussen, Emilio Simonsen, Oscar Buch, and super-influencer Agon Mucolli—gives them punch from multiple channels. Mucolli’s per-minute output has been standout (3 goals in 281 minutes; 13 shots, 8 on target), and even if he doesn’t start, his late-game threat matches Fredericia’s strong 76–90 minute scoring trend.</p> <p>Behind them, Felix Winther (7.47 avg rating) is making a difference in duels and ball progression, while Rieper and Kudsk provide the backbone at the back. Fredericia do concede chances, but against a Vejle side that struggles to create away, their defensive numbers should look healthier.</p> <p>For Vejle, Andrew Hjulsager and Mikkel Duelund remain the creative lifelines (4 combined league goals) with Christian Sørensen and Lasse Nielsen providing platform and delivery from the back. However, the away splits are stark: Vejle’s away attacking return is just 0.33 goals per game, with zero occasions of scoring first and an equalizing rate of 0% on the road. That severely limits their game-state flexibility once behind.</p> <h3>What the Odds Get Right—and Wrong</h3> <p>Match winner at near pick’em feels generous to Fredericia. The hosts have posted two straight home wins and typically strike first; Vejle, by contrast, have lost all away matches, trailing almost the entire time (94%). The books may be anchoring to Fredericia’s overall defensive leakiness and early-season uncertainty, but Vejle’s away attack hasn’t shown enough to fully exploit that.</p> <p>Both Teams To Score (No) is another angle where the data runs counter to public expectation of goals. Fredericia matches have been high-event overall, but Vejle’s away attack has been significantly below league average: 33% BTTS away and 67% away failed-to-score.</p> <p>Lastly, corners. Fredericia home fixtures trend high (12.5 average; 75% clearing 10.5), and even if Vejle play conservatively, the hosts generate enough territorial pressure and crossing volume to keep flags coming.</p> <h3>Players and Moments to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Agon Mucolli (Fredericia): Electric impact in limited minutes; direct, high shot involvement—excellent anytime price.</li> <li>Mikkel Duelund (Vejle): If Vejle are to nick anything, it likely runs through him (16 shots, 2 goals).</li> <li>Felix Winther (Fredericia): Ball-winning and tempo control; his duels could tilt midfield territory.</li> </ul> <h3>Projected Flow</h3> <p>Expect Fredericia to start on the front foot, exploiting Vejle’s early concessions. If the hosts get in front, Vejle’s low equalizing rate away suggests a long evening of chasing. Fredericia’s second-half strength and bench threats (notably Mucolli) set up another late surge. A controlled home win with limited Vejle threat looks the most likely script.</p> <h3>Best Bets Recap</h3> <ul> <li>Fredericia to score first (1.95) – best edge given early-concession trend for Vejle away.</li> <li>Fredericia to win (2.50) – value vs Vejle’s 0 away points.</li> <li>BTTS No (2.05) – Vejle’s away attack struggles.</li> <li>Over 10.5 corners (1.95) – Fredericia’s home corner production supports it.</li> <li>Anytime: Agon Mucolli (4.33) – form, volume, and late-game threat.</li> </ul> <p>With both form and situational metrics aligned, the hosts hold the clearer path to three points. Keep an eye on confirmed lineups—if Mucolli starts, the anytime price becomes even more attractive.</p> </body> </html>
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