Belgrano Cordoba vs San Martin S.J.
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<html> <head><title>Belgrano vs San Martín S.J. – Match Preview, Odds and Best Bets</title></head> <body> <h2>Belgrano vs San Martín S.J. – Tight Lines Favour the Unders</h2> <p>Belgrano welcome San Martín de San Juan in Córdoba with both sides level on eight points after seven rounds. The markets frame Belgrano as narrow favourites (1.93 ML), but the more compelling angles point toward a low-scoring encounter, shaped by San Martín’s travel trends and Belgrano’s injury-tinged creativity.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Belgrano’s recent sequence is mixed (two wins, a draw, two losses), with their home output still searching for consistency. San Martín arrive with a healthy squad and a pragmatic away approach that has already yielded two 0-0 draws on the road this term. Notably, San Martín’s away attack has sputtered (0.25 goals per away game, 75% failed-to-score), yet they’ve defended stoutly, allowing just one goal per away match on average.</p> <h3>What the Numbers Say</h3> <ul> <li>Both teams sit below league average in goals scored (Belgrano 0.86, San Martín 0.71 per game), hinting at narrow margins.</li> <li>San Martín away: two 0-0s, one 2-0 loss, one 2-1 loss. That’s 50% under 1.5 goals and 75% under 2.5 goals away from home.</li> <li>Belgrano at home: 0-1 vs Racing, 2-1 vs Banfield, 0-3 vs Central Córdoba — volatile totals but with two goal-less home outings from Belgrano themselves.</li> <li>BTTS rates are muted for both clubs (29% each overall), with venue splits still lower (Belgrano home 33%, San Martín away 25%).</li> </ul> <h3>Tactical Picture</h3> <p>With Facundo Quignon and Juan Velázquez sidelined, Belgrano’s ball progression and chance creation may lean more on Lucas Zelarayán, whose set-piece quality and late-arriving runs will be crucial. Franco Jara and Lucas Passerini offer penalty-box presence, and early strikes are possible against a San Martín side that has conceded first rapidly away (average first concession at 10’).</p> <p>San Martín will likely compress space and accept long spells without the ball, looking to break through Horacio Tijanovich’s direct running and Marco Iacobellis’ penalty-box instincts. Still, their away data points to scarce open-play creation and a heavy second-half scoring bias (80% of their goals after the break), consistent with a conservative first hour.</p> <h3>Key Match-Ups</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Zelarayán vs SM’s low block:</strong> The Belgrano playmaker is the likeliest match-winner in a tight game; his deliveries could be decisive.</li> <li><strong>Belgrano when leading:</strong> A perfect lead-defending rate (100%). If they score first, their win probability spikes sharply.</li> <li><strong>Set plays:</strong> In a low-margin game, corners and free-kicks loom large. Belgrano have the aerial profile to profit.</li> </ul> <h3>Odds and Value</h3> <p>Pricing reflects a low total, but there’s still value. “BTTS – No” at 1.51 remains attractive given the combined BTTS suppression (roughly ~70% No by data vs 66% implied). “San Martín Under 0.5 Goals” at 1.90 is the standout value: market implies ~53% while their 75% away FTS suggests a truer price closer to 1.60–1.70. Secondary angles: “Highest Scoring Half – 2nd” at 2.25 aligns with Belgrano’s 2nd-half concessions and San Martín’s 2nd-half scoring bias.</p> <h3>Projected Game Script</h3> <p>Expect a careful opening, Belgrano controlling territory without over-committing. If Belgrano break through, their stellar game-state numbers when leading point to a professional close-out. San Martín’s best chances likely arrive after the hour, especially in transition or via set-pieces. The most probable scorelines cluster around 1-0, 0-0, and 2-0.</p> <h3>Best Bets Summary</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Primary:</strong> BTTS – No (1.51)</li> <li><strong>Strong Value:</strong> San Martín Under 0.5 Goals (1.90)</li> <li><strong>Supplemental:</strong> Highest Scoring Half – 2nd (2.25); 1st Half Draw (1.87)</li> <li><strong>Prop (small stakes):</strong> Lucas Zelarayán Anytime (2.88)</li> </ul> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Belgrano’s edge at home, coupled with San Martín’s travel-shy attack, nudges this toward a home-favoured, low-scoring affair. Markets lean that way, but “BTTS – No” and “San Martín Under 0.5” still look like the smartest tickets.</p> </body> </html>
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