Belgrano Cordoba vs Newells Old Boys

<div> <h2>Belgrano vs Newell’s Old Boys: Cagey Patterns, Value in the Margins</h2> <p>Belgrano Córdoba host Newell’s Old Boys in Córdoba with both teams bunched in mid-table and separated by little on underlying numbers. It looks like one of those quintessential Argentine fixtures decided by patience and tiny moments: few chances early, more risk after the break.</p> <h3>Team News and Expected Lineups</h3> <p>Belgrano are expected to set up in a 4-4-2: Thiago Cardozo; Leonardo Morales, Alexis Maldonado, Lisandro López, Adrián Sporle; Ulises Sánchez, Santiago Longo, Rodrigo Saravia, Julián Mavilla; Nicolás Fernández, Franco Jara. Lucas Passerini is suspended, while Federico Ricca and Juan Velázquez are out. The absence of Passerini removes a reliable penalty-box focal point, placing extra onus on Jara and Fernández, with Lucas Zelarayán the likely creative conduit between lines.</p> <p>Newell’s likely go 4-2-3-1: Juan Espínola; Alejo Montero, Luciano Lollo, Víctor Cuesta, Alejo Tabares; Luca Regiardo, Éver Banega; Franco Orozco, Gonzalo Maroni, Josué Colmán; Genaro Rossi. Long-term injuries complicate stability—David Sotelo (season), Gaspar Iniguez (hamstring) and goalkeeper Lucas Hoyos (knee) are all ruled out, although Banega’s tempo setting remains central to their plan.</p> <h3>Form Guide and Tactical Themes</h3> <p>Belgrano’s league home attack has sputtered—just two goals in four, with a striking 75% failed-to-score rate at the venue. That’s the starkest split in this matchup and frames a conservative outlook. Newell’s away form is similarly tight: 1W-2D-1L, averaging 0.75 goals for and against, with 50% of away matches seeing them fail to score.</p> <p>Both sides are notoriously passive in first halves this campaign. Newell’s have not led at the interval in any match (0% HT leads), drawing at half-time 75% overall and 75% away. Belgrano draw 62% of first halves (50% at home). Expect a compact opening with few shots and set-pieces carrying outsized importance.</p> <h3>Patterns Within the 90 Minutes</h3> <p>The contest’s rhythm likely tilts later. Newell’s concentrate 75% of their goals after half-time and have four goals between 76-90 minutes. Belgrano concede 80% of home goals after the break, with a noticeable wobble right after HT (46-60). If the match remains level deep into the second half, Banega’s distribution and Maroni’s drifting between lines could generate the best visiting moments.</p> <h3>Key Headline Stats</h3> <ul> <li>Newell’s: 75% half-time draws; 0 first-half leads.</li> <li>Belgrano (home): failed to score in 3 of 4; BTTS yes only 25%.</li> <li>Newell’s (away): 50% failed to score; totals average 1.50.</li> <li>Both teams’ HT 0-0 rate: 50% at the relevant split.</li> </ul> <h3>What Could Tip It?</h3> <p>Belgrano’s recent 3-1 cup win over Newell’s—two from Franco Jara—nudges sentiment toward the hosts, but that match had a different dynamic and venue context. In league play at the Gigante de Alberdi, Belgrano’s attack has been more hesitant, and without Passerini there’s less penalty-area gravity. For Newell’s, the loss of Hoyos demands error-free concentration from Espínola behind a veteran pairing (Lollo/Cuesta). If either side capitalizes from a set play, it could be decisive.</p> <h3>Odds, Value and Where the Edge Lies</h3> <p>Markets price a tight affair (Under 2.5 heavily favored), but there’s more attractive value in derivative angles. First-Half Draw near evens stands out given both teams’ HT trends. BTTS No also aligns with Belgrano’s home FTS rate and Newell’s away frugality. For bigger prices, the draw at 3.15 is live—Newell’s spend a league-high proportion of time level—and the 0-0 correct score is a defensible long-shot considering both sides’ first-half anemia and conservative venue splits.</p> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <p>Franco Jara’s movement and finishing remain Belgrano’s best path to a breakthrough, with Zelarayán threading transitions. For Newell’s, Éver Banega dictates tempo and can tilt late phases with passing range and set-piece quality; Maroni’s recent contributions add a second creative outlet. Center-backs Cuesta and Lollo will be critical in handling crosses with Passerini absent but Jara lurking.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Low-event first half with a strong chance of 0-0 at the break; cagey progression into a nervy second half where a single goal—or none—decides it. The numbers lean to a stalemate: 0-0 or 1-1 most plausible. Best angle: First-Half Draw, with BTTS No as the companion play.</p> </div>