Huracan vs Newells Old Boys
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<html> <head><title>Huracán vs Newell’s Old Boys – Match Preview, Odds & Picks</title></head> <body> <h2>Form Context and Stakes</h2> <p>Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó plays host as Huracán welcome Newell’s Old Boys on November 8. It’s an early Clausura barometer for two sides seeking stability. Huracán sit mid-pack and just posted a statement 3-1 away win at Defensa y Justicia, while Newell’s arrive bottom of the form table (last 8) and mired in a six-game winless stretch.</p> <h3>What the Numbers Say</h3> <ul> <li>Huracán’s home profile is ultra-low event: only 0.43 goals scored per home game, 0.86 conceded, with an <strong>86% Under 2.5</strong> hit-rate and <strong>0% BTTS</strong>.</li> <li>Newell’s away are brittle: <strong>2.00 conceded per game</strong>, and they <strong>fail to score 57%</strong> of the time on their travels.</li> <li>Game-state matters: Huracán’s lead-defending rate at home is <strong>100%</strong>. If they score first, they close the door.</li> <li>Goal timing skews late: both teams produce more after the break; Huracán see <strong>67% of concessions in 2H</strong>, Newell’s <strong>64% of goals scored in 2H</strong>.</li> </ul> <h3>Tactical Picture</h3> <p>Huracán’s home template underlines compact lines, deep rest-defense and conservative risk when level. They have leaned on narrow scorelines—three 1-0 home wins—and rarely open up. Newell’s, under pressure to spark the attack, have been targeted down the channels away from home, with defensive spacing and transition rest-defense recurring issues. Expect Huracán to funnel Newell’s wide, compress the half-spaces, and trust set-piece organization and late counters.</p> <h3>Key Players to Watch</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Huracán:</strong> Luciano Giménez has popped up with timely goals, while the back line’s aerial presence (Tobio/Burdisso profiles) underpins those clean sheets. Midfield ball security has improved in recent weeks, allowing them to protect leads.</li> <li><strong>Newell’s:</strong> Éver Banega remains the conduit; his tempo control and passing range can tilt phases back to La Lepra. Wingers like Franco Orozco offer dribble threat, but end product away from Rosario has been inconsistent.</li> </ul> <h3>Market Lens and Value</h3> <p>The market shades Huracán at 1.84 ML, and that feels roughly fair given a 1.43 PPG home split vs Newell’s 0.71 away. But the sharper edges lie in derivatives:</p> <ul> <li><strong>BTTS No (1.48):</strong> Huracán’s 0% home BTTS is an extreme signal; combined with Newell’s 57% away FTS, the distribution is heavily one-sided for a shutout on at least one side.</li> <li><strong>Huracán Clean Sheet Yes (1.83):</strong> Pricing implies a coin flip, but the inputs (Huracán 57% home CS, Newell’s 57% away FTS) justify a lean above 54.5%.</li> <li><strong>Huracán & Under 3.5 (2.10):</strong> Matches at Ducó rarely escalate; Huracán’s seven home games all landed Under 3.5. If the hosts do prevail, it’s typically 1-0 or 2-0.</li> <li><strong>Highest Scoring Half – 2nd (2.25):</strong> Both sides show clear 2H skew, and the price offers upside for late action.</li> </ul> <h3>Situational and Psychological Factors</h3> <p>Newell’s travel poorly and struggle when conceding first; their away time trailing sits at 40%, and their lead-defending rate is just 33%. Huracán, conversely, handle scoreboard pressure well at home and don’t chase. Expect a cagey opening and a greater probability of decisive moments in the final half hour.</p> <h3>Weather and Conditions</h3> <p>Buenos Aires should be mild and clear (18–24°C). Good surface and weather favor Huracán’s patient, low-risk approach and late transitions.</p> <h3>Best Bets Summary</h3> <ul> <li><strong>BTTS No (1.48)</strong> – flagship angle driven by Huracán’s home BTTS zero.</li> <li><strong>Huracán Clean Sheet Yes (1.83)</strong> – aligns with Newell’s away scoring woes.</li> <li><strong>Huracán & Under 3.5 (2.10)</strong> – mirrors how Huracán typically win at home.</li> <li><strong>Exact Score 1-0 (4.00)</strong> – the most common Huracán home win.</li> </ul> <p>Projection: Huracán 1-0 Newell’s Old Boys.</p> </body> </html>
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