Pisa vs Fiorentina
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<html> <head><title>Pisa vs Fiorentina – Serie A Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Pisa vs Fiorentina: Tight margins and venue trends point to a low-scoring grind</h2> <h3>Context and Stakes</h3> <p>Newly promoted Pisa host Fiorentina in Round 5 with both teams needing traction after slow starts. Pisa have just one point from four, while Fiorentina sit on two. The narrative is clear: Fiorentina’s deeper squad and defensive upgrades should translate into points, but they’ve yet to win; Pisa’s home form has been barren in front of goal.</p> <h3>Team News and Selection</h3> <ul> <li>Pisa: Juan Cuadrado is ruled out. Expect Semper in goal behind Caracciolo and Canestrelli, with Angori at wing-back. Aebischer and Marin anchor midfield; Tramoni, Léris, Moreo provide legs behind target man M’Bala Nzola.</li> <li>Fiorentina: Christian Kouamé and Tariq Lamptey miss out. David De Gea starts in goal; expect a back line featuring Pongračić and Ranieri with Dodo and Gosens as aggressive full-backs. Midfield rotation around Mandragora (already on two league goals), with Kean/Džeko/Gudmundsson options up front.</li> </ul> <h3>Form Lines and Venue Splits</h3> <p>The strongest signal in the numbers is venue-driven. Pisa’s two home matches both ended in 0-1 defeats (vs Roma and Udinese), with 0 goals scored, 100% failed-to-score, and 62% of minutes spent trailing. Fiorentina away have been compact: two draws (0-0 at Torino, 1-1 at Cagliari), conceding just 0.5 per game with a 50% clean-sheet rate and 0% time trailing. That combination is a flashing sign for a low total and potential Viola clean sheet.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchup</h3> <p>Pisa’s manager will keep things pragmatic, likely in a 3/5-at-the-back shape designed to compress space centrally, hoping Nzola can turn sparse transitions into set pieces or shots. Fiorentina under Vincenzo Italiano will attempt to pin Pisa’s wing-backs with Gosens and Dodo, while Mandragora steps into pockets to shoot from range. De Gea’s presence lowers volatility—precisely what Viola have shown on the road (two HT 0-0s, minimal chaos).</p> <h3>Key Numbers</h3> <ul> <li>Under trend: Pisa home total goals = 1.0 per game; Fiorentina away total goals = 1.0 per game.</li> <li>BTTS: Pisa home BTTS is 0%; Fiorentina away clean sheets 50%.</li> <li>First-half trend: Fiorentina away HT results have been 0-0 in both away matches.</li> <li>Scoreline echo: Pisa’s only home scoreline this season is 0-1 (twice).</li> </ul> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Rolando Mandragora (Fiorentina): Two league goals already, timing of late arrivals is key versus Pisa’s deep block.</li> <li>Robin Gosens (Fiorentina): The wing-back’s deliveries could be decisive against a narrow Pisa shape.</li> <li>M’Bala Nzola (Pisa): Best route to a home breakthrough; needs support runners to create second balls and fouls in advanced areas.</li> <li>David De Gea (Fiorentina): A confidence anchor; shot-stopping and box command have underpinned Viola’s away resilience.</li> </ul> <h3>What the Odds Say</h3> <p>Market leans Fiorentina at 2.26 to win, but their away draw profile and Pisa’s sticky defense suggest taking the safer Draw No Bet at 1.62. The standout angle is goals: Under 2.5 at 1.62 projects well against both clubs’ venue splits. BTTS No at 1.80 closely mirrors Pisa’s 100% home blanks. For value seekers, the Fiorentina clean sheet at 2.60 and a 0-1 correct score at 5.75 fit the data narrative.</p> <h3>Risks and Caveats</h3> <p>It’s still early—four-match samples are noisy. Fiorentina’s lead-defending rate is surprisingly poor overall (0), hinting at potential lapses. Pisa, newly promoted, could yet find a spark at home. Still, the weight of venue evidence suggests a narrow, low-scoring contest.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>A controlled away performance anchored by De Gea and a compact back line. Pisa struggle to create high-quality chances in front of their fans again.</p> <p><strong>Pick:</strong> Fiorentina to edge it 0-1.</p> </body> </html>
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