Udinese vs Bologna
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<html> <head><title>Udinese vs Bologna: Tactical, Trends and Value Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Udinese vs Bologna: Form Surges, Injuries, and Where the Value Lies</h2> <p>Bologna arrive in Udine riding an eight-match unbeaten run and fresh off a statement 2-0 win over Napoli. Udinese, however, have quietly stabilized at the Dacia Arena with back-to-back home victories over Lecce and Atalanta. Layer on top the injury lists—particularly Bologna’s goalkeeping and midfield issues—and we have a nuanced, high-stakes early winter clash.</p> <h3>Form and Momentum</h3> <p>Bologna’s trajectory is steeply positive: 2.25 points per game across the last eight league fixtures and 2.13 goals per game in that span. Thiago Motta’s side travel well too, scoring in all six away fixtures and netting 2+ in four of those, including 3 at Parma and 2 at Cagliari and Fiorentina.</p> <p>Udinese have improved at home (1.60 PPG), and the recent 1-0 win over Atalanta showcased a tidy defensive shape anchored by Solet and a more combative midfield unit with Atta. However, across the last eight they’ve regressed defensively overall (1.88 GA), and their matches still carry goal potential (both teams scored in 60% at home).</p> <h3>Injuries and Selection</h3> <ul> <li>Udinese: Thomas Kristensen is out; Keinan Davis remains a doubt. Expect Lovrić and Atta to shoulder creative load with Zaniolo in advanced areas.</li> <li>Bologna: Skorupski (thigh) sidelined; Ravaglia not certain; Freuler (shoulder) out; Holm and Cambiaghi doubtful. Bologna’s depth mitigates this—Lucumí, Vitík, Zortea can cover at the back; Castro and Orsolini headline the attack with Bernardeschi as a flexible option.</li> </ul> <p>The goalkeeper situation for Bologna elevates BTTS likelihood, but their attacking upside remains intact. Castro’s form away from home is notable, and Orsolini’s penalty threat carries weight against a defense that’s conceded spot-kicks in recent weeks.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchup</h3> <p>Udinese’s 3-5-2/3-4-2-1 hybrid relies on winning second balls and attacking wide-to-inside through Zaniolo. Bologna’s 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 morph keeps the ball and shifts tempo after the interval. The key battleground is Bologna’s right: Orsolini/Holm (or Zortea) vs Udinese’s left wing-back channel, where Udinese have leaked late. Expect Bologna to accelerate in the second half—61% of their league goals arrive after the break—while Udinese concede 71% of their home goals in the second half.</p> <h3>Goal Timing and Market Implications</h3> <ul> <li>Halftime: Bologna have not trailed at the break all season, with a striking 73% HT draw rate. Market’s 2.00 on HT draw looks generous.</li> <li>Second Half: Trends strongly favor more action after HT. “2nd half highest scoring” around 2.20 aligns with both teams’ profiles.</li> <li>Team Goals: Bologna’s away 2+ hit-rate (67%) outpaces the market price; Over 1.5 Bologna goals at 2.30 stands out.</li> </ul> <h3>Key Players</h3> <p>For Bologna, Riccardo Orsolini remains the headline with five league goals and penalty duties; Santiago Castro’s movement and recent away return suggest he’s the sneakiest anytime angle. For Udinese, Nicolò Zaniolo’s three goals and shot volume are vital—if Keinan Davis misses, Udinese’s direct threat drops, shifting reliance onto Zaniolo and Atta’s ball-carrying.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s Verdict</h3> <p>This contest tilts toward a cagey first half before opening up. Bologna’s superior form, away scoring consistency, and later-game punch point to them landing at least one, and likely two. Udinese’s home uptick plus Bologna’s GK issues keep BTTS firmly in play.</p> <p>Best angles: First Half Draw at 2.00, Bologna Over 1.5 Team Goals at 2.30, BTTS Yes at 1.91, and a sprinkle on Second Half to be the highest scoring half at 2.20. For player props, Santiago Castro anytime at 2.88 is a live runner.</p> <h3>Projected Rhythm</h3> <p>Expect a compact opening—Udinese cautious, Bologna composed—before tactical subs and wing overloads tip the balance post-60’. Edge Bologna on quality and momentum, but the safer exposure is goals-based rather than outright.</p> </body> </html>
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