Sassuolo vs Fiorentina
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<html> <head> <title>Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: Tactical Preview, Odds and Best Bets</title> </head> <body> <h2>Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: Form, Edges and Where the Value Lies</h2> <p>Sassuolo host Fiorentina at the MAPEI Stadium with the Neroverdi sitting in mid-table comfort and the Viola rock bottom after a winless start. The Oracle sees mispricing in the 1x2 markets and a strong second-half tilt that opens multiple value avenues.</p> <h3>State of Play</h3> <p>Sassuolo are 10th with 17 points from 13, while Fiorentina are 19th on six, still searching for their first win. Recent trends reinforce the gap: Sassuolo’s last eight league matches show defensive improvement (goals against down 18.7% to 1.00), while Fiorentina’s last eight saw points per game drop 17% and goals against rise 16%.</p> <h3>Venue Dynamics and Matchup</h3> <ul> <li>Sassuolo at home: 1.17 PPG, 1.17 GF/1.33 GA, BTTS 50%.</li> <li>Fiorentina away: 0.57 PPG, 0.57 GF/1.43 GA, failed to score 57%.</li> <li>Sassuolo’s lead-defending rate at home is 100%; Fiorentina’s lead-defending is 0% overall.</li> </ul> <p>This is a classic “competent mid-table host vs winless struggler” setup where the market has narrowed the gap too far. The draw-no-bet line on Sassuolo holds clear value given Fiorentina’s away anemia.</p> <h3>Goal Timing: Expect the Game to Open Up After Half-time</h3> <p>Both teams are second-half sides. Sassuolo score 75% after the break, peaking between 61–75 minutes. Fiorentina score 70% after half-time and also concede more late (12 of 21 GA in 2H). With average “first goal scored” minutes in the 46–51 range, the rhythm points towards a cagey first half, then space and chances post-HT.</p> <h3>Players and Tactics to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Domenico Berardi (Sassuolo): 4G, 3A and set-piece leadership. Fiorentina’s vulnerability under pressure makes his assist at 3.75 a live under-the-radar angle.</li> <li>Andrea Pinamonti (Sassuolo): 4G from 27 shots (17 on target). If Sassuolo get service into the box, he’s the likeliest finisher.</li> <li>Rolando Mandragora (Fiorentina): 3 league goals—timely arrivals and set-piece moments are their best route away from home.</li> <li>Moise Kean (Fiorentina): Focal point but starved of quality away; Fiorentina’s 0.57 GF away underscores the supply problem.</li> </ul> <p>Structurally, Sassuolo’s 4-2-3-1 can pin Fiorentina’s fullbacks with Berardi/Laurienté wide and Thorstvedt’s late runs. On the other side, Fiorentina’s best phase typically arrives after the interval when lines stretch, but their inability to protect advantages (lead-defending 0%) invites late Sassuolo pressure.</p> <h3>Team News and Selection Notes</h3> <p>Per available updates, Sassuolo are without Cristian Volpato, Edoardo Pieragnolo, Filippo Romagna and Laurs Skjellerup. Fiorentina are missing Christian Kouamé, Robin Gosens and Tariq Lamptey. The Neroverdi retain their core front four; Fiorentina are thin in wide depth and rely on set plays and transitions.</p> <h3>Market View and Best Bets</h3> <p>Odds have Fiorentina near co-favorites away (2.58) and Sassuolo 2.75. That’s optimistic for a winless side with 0.57 away PPG. The Oracle prefers Sassuolo on Draw No Bet at 1.95—protecting the draw while capitalizing on Fiorentina’s offensive struggles.</p> <ul> <li>Primary: Sassuolo +0 (DNB) @ 1.95. Fair closer to 1.75–1.85.</li> <li>Secondary: Highest scoring half 2nd at 2.20 and 2H Over 1.5 at 2.30, both backed by consistent timing splits.</li> <li>High-odds sprinkle: Fiorentina “No Goal” @ 3.25. Away FTS of 57% vs implied 30.8% is strong plus-EV despite Sassuolo’s low home CS rate.</li> </ul> <h3>The Oracle’s Verdict</h3> <p>Expect a measured first half and a more open second. Sassuolo’s improved defending and rock-solid lead management should outweigh Fiorentina’s second-half surges. The value is with Sassuolo DNB, the late-goals profile, and a small flyer on Fiorentina failing to score at a big number.</p> </body> </html>
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