Cagliari vs Pisa
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<html> <head><title>Cagliari vs Pisa: Betting Preview, News, Odds</title></head> <body> <h2>Match Context</h2> <p>Cagliari host Pisa in Serie A with both clubs navigating injury headwinds and a congested December. The table context is stark: Cagliari in 15th (14 pts) aiming to push away from the bottom three; Pisa in 19th (10 pts) desperate for points on the road.</p> <h3>Injuries and Selection</h3> <ul> <li>Cagliari: Andrea Belotti (ACL) is out long-term; Alessandro Deiola and Yerry Mina are doubts. That slightly dents aerial presence but central stability with Luperto–Obert has been competent, and Elia Caprile’s shot-stopping remains a plus.</li> <li>Pisa: The headline is M’Bala Nzola suspended and Juan Cuadrado doubtful. Calvin Stengs and others are sidelined, slicing away at Pisa’s transition and set-piece quality. That’s critical for a side whose away output has relied on direct moments and counters.</li> </ul> <h3>Form and Flow</h3> <p>Cagliari have blown hot-cold but beat Roma 1–0 at home and pushed Atalanta (2–1) away. Pisa’s latest run reads three consecutive losses to nil, and their overall failed-to-score rate (60%) is severe; away from home they’ve been more active but still porous (2.14 GA).</p> <h3>Tactical Tendencies</h3> <p>Expect Cagliari to lean on structure and late surges from midfield. Gianluca Gaetano’s timing between the lines has been crucial, complemented by Borrelli’s target play and Esposito’s mobility. Pisa, without Nzola, likely pivot to Stefano Moreo as focal point, with runners from midfield, but ball progression and final-third invention are likely to dip.</p> <h3>Key Numbers</h3> <ul> <li>Pisa away: 0 wins in 7 (D4 L3); 3.43 total goals per game; 71% Over 2.5; leadDefendingRate 0%.</li> <li>Cagliari home: 1.14 ppg; leadDefendingRate 67%; 62% of goals scored after half-time.</li> <li>Draw profile: Pisa draws 47% overall, 57% away, including multiple 2–2s (a rate likely to regress but still elevated).</li> </ul> <h3>Market Read</h3> <p>The home moneyline (2.20) implies roughly 45.5% — close to fair. The shrewder angle is Cagliari Draw No Bet around 1.57, buffered by Pisa’s high draw rate. With Cuadrado doubtful and Nzola out, Pisa’s best route to nicking an away win is diminished, making the downside smaller on the DNB.</p> <p>Total goals are nuanced: Cagliari’s home unders meet Pisa’s away overs. The compromise is Over 2.25 at ~2.02, harnessing Pisa’s chaotic away game state while protecting against a 2-goal ceiling. Second-half to be higher scoring at ~2.00 lines up with both teams’ timing splits.</p> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Gianluca Gaetano (Cagliari): Scored in two of his last two league appearances, late arrivals and set-piece threat. At ~4.75 anytime, he’s the value pick if starting.</li> <li>Elia Caprile (Cagliari): Strong shot-stopper; against a shorthanded Pisa attack, one big intervention could tilt the second half.</li> <li>Stefano Moreo (Pisa): Target man duty in Nzola’s absence; will battle Luperto/ Obert. Supply may be the issue, not finishing.</li> </ul> <h3>The Oracle’s Verdict</h3> <p>Cagliari’s at-home resilience against a travel-weary, undermanned Pisa attack points to a low-variance, protection-first primary: Cagliari DNB. Game flow should swell after the interval, making the second half the likeliest window for goals and decisive moments. If Pisa’s draw magnetism persists, the safety of DNB and the 1–1 saver at 5.25 both make sense within a diversified staking plan.</p> </body> </html>
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