Modena vs Pescara
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<html> <head><title>Modena vs Pescara: Statistical Preview, Odds and Key Angles</title></head> <body> <h2>Form and Context</h2> <p>Top-of-the-table Modena welcome Pescara to the Stadio Alberto Braglia with momentum firmly on their side. Through four league rounds, Modena sit first with 10 points (3 wins, 1 draw) and a superb 9:2 goal difference. Pescara arrive mid-pack (13th) on four points, buoyed by a 4-0 thumping of Empoli at home but carrying a poor away record (0 points from one road trip) and a defense that has allowed 1.75 goals per game.</p> <h2>Venue Split: Why Home Advantage Matters</h2> <p>Modena at home are 2.00 PPG with 2.0 GF and just 0.5 GA per match. Their lead-defending rate is a perfect 100%, and they’ve kept a clean sheet in 50% of league matches. Pescara away, by contrast, show 0.00 PPG with 2.0 GA and 1.0 GF. They have yet to score first on the road and spend 31% of time trailing away—worrying when facing Modena’s disciplined unit.</p> <h2>Timing Patterns: Expect the Late Show</h2> <p>Both sides skew their output towards later stages. Modena score 67% of their goals in the second half, with notable strikes between 61’–90’. Pescara are even more extreme: 88% of their goals arrive after the break, including four in the 76–90’ window. The data strongly signals a more open, higher-event second half.</p> <h2>Key Battles and Players</h2> <p><strong>Ettore Gliozzi</strong> (Modena) is the primary danger: 3 goals already, two from the spot, and he’s logging high duel involvement and accuracy (6 of 12 shots on target). With creators such as <strong>Francesco Di Mariano</strong> and <strong>Grégoire Defrel</strong> supplying, Modena’s chance quality is robust. In goal, veteran <strong>Leandro Chichizola</strong> has conceded just twice across four league games and brings calm to an in-form back line (Tonoli, Nieling, Adorni, Zampano).</p> <p>Pescara’s attacking spark comes from <strong>Giacomo Olzer</strong> (2 goals, 9 shots) and <strong>Andrea Oliveri</strong> (2 goals). GK <strong>Sebastiano Desplanches</strong> has been busy (17 saves); he may need another big afternoon to keep Modena in check. The away side’s issue is structural: they concede first in 75% overall and average their first goal scored as late as the 71st minute, which is too reactive against an organized opponent.</p> <h2>How the Numbers Compare to the League</h2> <p>Modena’s attack (2.25 GF) is well above the Serie B average (1.24), and their defense (0.50 GA) is elite versus the same benchmark (1.24). Pescara’s attack (2.00 GF) is above average, but defensive leakage (1.75 GA) drags their game state toward chases and volatile scorelines—another reason to anticipate a lively second half.</p> <h2>Odds and Value</h2> <ul> <li><strong>Modena & Over 1.5 (2.10)</strong>: Better value than the straight home win (1.65) and aligned with Pescara’s 100% rate of matches clearing 1.5 total goals. Modena’s superior time-leading share (45% vs 6%) and 100% lead-defense justify the angle.</li> <li><strong>Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half (2.10)</strong>: Both teams’ late-goal bias is extreme. Market looks underpriced given 67% vs 88% 2H share of goals.</li> <li><strong>Modena Team Over 1.5 (1.83)</strong>: Home GF 2.0 vs Pescara’s GA 1.75 (2.0 away). With Gliozzi in rhythm and set-piece/penalty threat, the hosts are well placed to reach two goals.</li> <li><strong>Ettore Gliozzi Anytime (2.50)</strong>: Main striker, penalties, and form provide fair upside. Pescara have already conceded a penalty this season.</li> </ul> <h2>Tactical Snapshot</h2> <p>Modena likely in a 4-3-3, with fullback Zampano pushing to create width and crosses to a physical No.9 (Gliozzi), backed by industrious midfielders Santoro and Gerli. Pescara’s 4-2-3-1 often relies on Olzer’s ball-carrying and late-arriving midfielders like Oliveri; they tend to grow into games but struggle to control territory early, a poor fit against Modena’s game-state control.</p> <h2>Risk Notes</h2> <p>It is early in the season (small sample sizes) and Pescara’s 4-0 win indicates their ceiling. They also produce late goals, which can spoil exact-score or “to nil” bets. Prioritize lines that leverage Modena’s superiority while accommodating late scoring (e.g., Home & Over 1.5, 2nd-half markets).</p> <h2>Verdict</h2> <p>Modena’s balance, form, and home metrics outweigh Pescara’s sporadic bursts. The smartest angle is to combine the home bias with modest goal expectation: <strong>Modena & Over 1.5</strong>. For plus-money edges, the <strong>2nd Half to be highest scoring</strong> and <strong>Gliozzi anytime</strong> capture the timing and personnel trends that have defined both teams’ early season.</p> </body> </html>
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