Modena vs Virtus Entella
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<html> <head> <title>Modena vs Virtus Entella: Tactical and Betting Preview</title> <meta charset="UTF-8" /> </head> <body> <h2>Modena’s promotion charge meets Entella’s away blues</h2> <p>Alberto Braglia hosts a meeting of sharply contrasting profiles. Modena sit second after six rounds and are undefeated, while Virtus Entella are 14th and still searching for an away spark. The numbers behind those positions tell a clear story: Modena look like a cohesive, late-surging unit; Entella are organized at home but soften after halftime on their travels.</p> <h3>Form and venue dynamics</h3> <p>Modena’s 2.33 points per game overall is matched at home (2.33), built on 2.00 goals scored and just 0.67 conceded per game at the Braglia. Entella’s away return is 0.33 points per game, with 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded. The game-state metrics amplify the gap: Modena defend leads impeccably (lead defending rate 100%) and spend only 8% of home minutes trailing; Entella trail 39% of away minutes and have a 0% lead-defending rate away, a worrying combination when stepping into one of Serie B’s most efficient attacks.</p> <h3>The second-half story</h3> <p>This matchup is defined by the second half. Modena score 73% of their goals after halftime and have registered a second-half goal in all three home matches. Entella have conceded in the second period in all three away matches, and 75% of their goals conceded come after the interval. Expect Modena to turn the screw late with depth (Zanimacchia, Di Mariano, Defrel) feeding front-man Ettore Gliozzi.</p> <h3>Key players and tactical levers</h3> <p><strong>Ettore Gliozzi</strong> is central to Modena’s plan: four league goals (three at home) and penalty duties (three scored). His movement across the front line, especially when Modena push the fullbacks and swing in second-phase crosses, has been ruthless. The supply line features <strong>Gerli</strong>, <strong>Santoro</strong> and <strong>Zampano</strong>, with rotation options keeping tempo high after the break.</p> <p>For Entella, set-pieces remain their best route. <strong>Andrea Tiritiello</strong> (two league goals) is a constant aerial threat, while <strong>Guiu</strong> and <strong>Fumagalli</strong> can manufacture moments in transition. However, discipline and late-game resilience are concerns: multiple cautions among the back line and a tendency to concede late equalizers or winners on the road.</p> <h3>Totals and both teams to score</h3> <p>The headline totals picture is mixed. Modena’s home games have skewed higher (67% Over 2.5), whereas Entella’s away matches sit at 33% Over 2.5. The more consistent signal is both teams to score: 67% at both Modena home and Entella away. That reflects Entella’s capacity to nick one—often late—despite their frailty protecting results.</p> <h3>Match script projection</h3> <p>Modena should control territory and shot volume, with Entella defending deep and targeting counters and restarts. The first half may be cagey—both teams’ first halves trend low event—before Modena’s pressure tells after halftime. High-probability moments: a Modena second-half goal, a strong chance the second half out-scores the first, and a home win if Modena strike first (they average 3.00 ppg when doing so).</p> <h3>Odds and value</h3> <p>Markets appear to underrate the second-half skew. <em>Home to score in the second half</em> at 1.73 and <em>Second-half winner: Modena</em> at 2.25 both look like overlays given Modena’s 73% 2H GF and Entella’s 75% 2H GA. Moneyline 1.85 remains playable given the home/away split (2.33 ppg vs 0.33 ppg), while BTTS Yes at 2.05 aligns with the venue-specific 67% rates.</p> <h3>What to watch</h3> - Gliozzi’s positioning on crosses and penalties.<br/> - Modena’s fullback involvement and wave substitutions around 55–70’.<br/> - Entella’s set-piece routines, targeting Tiritiello at the back post.<br/> - Game state after 60’: if level, Modena’s late surge is historically decisive.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Modena to impose their quality and depth, especially after halftime. The second half should be the decisive act, with Gliozzi the most likely scorer. Entella have pathways through restarts, keeping BTTS live, but their away metrics suggest the home side finishes stronger.</p> </body> </html>
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