Padova vs Venezia
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<html> <head> <title>Padova vs Venezia: Data-led Derby Preview</title> </head> <body> <h2>Padova vs Venezia — Form, Numbers and Value</h2> <p>Two northeastern rivals meet at Euganeo with contrasting venue identities: Padova draw-heavy at home, Venezia elite at home but winless away. The Oracle’s read is clear—the market has over-weighted league position and under-weighted away dynamics and goal timing.</p> <h3>Form Snapshot</h3> <p>Venezia sit fifth with 19 points, buoyed by imperious home wins, but their road ledger is 0-4-2. Their last two away defeats came via late concessions (84’ at Carrarese and 80’ at Catanzaro), reinforcing the season-long stat: they’ve shipped five away goals in the final quarter-hour. Padova, 12th with 14 points, have turned the Euganeo into a draw machine—three home stalemates in their last three here (2-2, 2-2, 1-1).</p> <h3>Injury and Selection Context</h3> <p>Padova’s list isn’t pretty: Antonio Barreca is suspended; Kevin Lasagna is reportedly out; several midfielders (Di Maggio, Baselli, Silva) are touch-and-go or unavailable. That said, leading scorer Mattia Bortolussi (six, four at home) remains fit and on penalties, preserving their principal route to goal.</p> <p>Venezia travel without defensive linchpin Giorgio Altare (ACL) and are managing absences in midfield (Conde, Oristanio). Defensive rotation has forced less-experienced depth into minutes, part of the reason their away lead-defending rate sits at 0%.</p> <h3>Tactical Battle Lines</h3> <p>Expect Venezia to start brighter. Their average first goal arrives around 21’, with strong first-half output (12 GF, 3 GA in first halves). Padova, conversely, wobble before the break at home (six conceded between 31–45), but they are a dangerous second-half side: 57% of their goals arrive after the interval, and they own a 75% equalizing rate at Euganeo. A game state featuring Venezia on top early and Padova rallying late is the median path.</p> <h3>Key Matchups</h3> <ul> <li>Bortolussi vs Venezia centre-backs: With Altare absent and late-away concessions mounting, Bortolussi’s penalty threat and hold-up play are pivotal. He accounts for 50% of Padova’s league goals.</li> <li>Adorante/Yeboah in transition: Venezia’s best away moments have come from quick strikes, with Adorante scoring three on the road. Busio and Kike Pérez supply vertical passes; Doumbia’s ball-carrying adds thrust.</li> <li>Set pieces and late subs: Padova’s equalizers have often stemmed from restarts and second-phase pressure; Venezia’s away unit has surrendered late territory and concentration.</li> </ul> <h3>Market Read: Where the Value Lies</h3> <p>The 1X2 has Venezia at 1.97, Draw at 3.30. Given Padova’s 60% home draw rate and Venezia’s 67% away draw rate, a fair draw price should be closer to 2.70–2.90. That 3.30 is standout value in a match where the favorite is winless away.</p> <p>BTTS Yes at 1.91 also rates well. Padova have zero home clean sheets and hit 80% BTTS at Euganeo; Venezia’s away BTTS is 67%. Weather is benign (cool, dry), which favors tempo and shot volume rather than attrition.</p> <p>For first-half markets, Venezia’s season-long trend of never trailing at the break and 83% away HT draws points to the HT Draw at 2.05. It fits the likely flow: Venezia start on top, Padova stabilize. The second-half tilt toward Padova is captured via “Team to Score Last – Padova” at 2.60, a niche angle reflecting Venezia’s 76–90’ away leak (five conceded) and Padova’s strong equalizing tendency.</p> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Mattia Bortolussi (Padova): Penalty-taker, 6 goals, vital focal point with Lasagna out.</li> <li>Andrea Adorante (Venezia): Four league goals, three on the road; earliest outlet in transitions.</li> <li>Gianluca Busio / Kike Pérez: Control the midfield tempo and entry passes; both contribute in chance creation.</li> </ul> <h3>The Oracle’s Verdict</h3> <p>All roads lead to a draw-based position. Take the full-time stalemate at a generous 3.30, back BTTS at 1.91, and lock in the first-half draw at 2.05. For portfolio protection, Padova +0.5 at 1.85 covers the modal result. Prop-wise, Bortolussi anytime at 3.75 aligns with his volume and penalty equity.</p> </body> </html>
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