Frosinone vs Juve Stabia
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<html> <head><title>Frosinone vs Juve Stabia — Tactical Preview, Odds & Betting Insights</title></head> <body> <h2>Frosinone eye statement win to keep pace at the top</h2> <p>Second-placed Frosinone welcome mid-table Juve Stabia to Stadio Benito Stirpe with a clear objective: maintain pressure on leaders Monza. The hosts arrive unbeaten in six league matches and off back-to-back wins, while Stabia’s recent run features two straight away defeats and a winless streak stretching to five on their travels.</p> <h3>Form and context</h3> <p>Frosinone have been one of Serie B’s most balanced sides: 2.00 points per game overall, 1.83 at home, and a healthy 2.17 goals scored per home match. Juve Stabia, admirable at grinding results at home, have struggled away from Castellammare: 0.86 PPG, conceding 1.86 per game, and still seeking their first away clean sheet.</p> <p>Previews in the Italian press and betting markets frame this as a match Frosinone “should take care of,” with Stabia’s best route to a result likely a maximally compact 5-3-2, countering and leaning into set-pieces. The odds back that slant: the hosts are favourites and widely tipped to dictate tempo.</p> <h3>Tactics: front-foot Frosinone vs compact Stabia</h3> <p>Frosinone are expected in a 4-3-3. Full-backs, especially Riccardo Marchizza, push high to create width, while Giacomo Calò orchestrates from deep and Ilias Koutsoupias provides vertical running into the area. Wide forwards Farès Ghedjemis and Giorgi Kvernadze give penetration on the outside and inside channels. The hosts’ hallmark this season has been early control— they’ve scored first in 83% of home matches and often assert dominance before the break.</p> <p>Juve Stabia will likely sit off in a 3-5-2 that becomes a back five without the ball. Lorenzo Carissoni’s work-rate at wing-back and Nicola Mosti’s link play are central to their transitions, with Leonardo Candellone the primary target in the box. But their second-half data away is alarming: 10 goals conceded in second halves on the road, with a pronounced fade in the final quarter-hour.</p> <h3>Key battles</h3> <ul> <li>Calò vs Stabia’s midfield screen: Calò’s set-piece delivery and progressive passing (4G, 5A) are pivotal against a deep block. Limiting his time on the ball is essential for the visitors.</li> <li>Ghedjemis and Kvernadze vs the back five: Dribbling threat and underlapping runs can distort Stabia’s defensive shape, particularly if Carissoni is forced back.</li> <li>Candellone vs Calvani/Monterisi: Stabia’s best moments will come from direct play and second balls. If Candellone can pin the centre-backs, Stabia can at least buy territorial relief.</li> </ul> <h3>Numbers that matter</h3> <ul> <li>Over trends: Frosinone home over 2.5 hits 67%; Stabia away over 2.5 hits 71%. Combined profile screams goals, largely driven by Stabia’s away concessions.</li> <li>Home team scoring: Frosinone have scored 2+ in 4 of 6 home matches; Juve Stabia have conceded 2+ in 5 of 7 away.</li> <li>Game state: Stabia’s away lead-defending rate is just 25%, and their equalising rate is also 25% — they struggle to manage momentum.</li> </ul> <h3>Risk factors</h3> <p>Two nuances temper Frosinone backers: the hosts’ equalising rate is 0 this season (they haven’t come from behind), and their lead-defending at home is only 60%, as the 2-2 vs Modena showed. That’s why team totals or first-to-score angles make more sense than an all-in stance on the money line.</p> <h3>Best bets and verdict</h3> <p>The numbers point to a professional home performance with goals for Frosinone. The standout angle is the home team to score at least twice, priced above even money despite their strong home attack and Stabia’s travel woes. First goal Frosinone is also well-priced given the fast-start profile. If you want broader exposure to game tempo, over 2.5 goals offers value at plus money, covering a 2-1 or 3-0 type outcome that fits the matchup.</p> <p>Verdict: Frosinone to win, with 2-0 or 2-1 the most plausible scorelines. Expect Calò and Koutsoupias to provide the thrust and final-third quality needed to break a stubborn block.</p> </body> </html>
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