Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid
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<html> <head><title>Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid: Data-Led Preview, Odds and Best Bets</title></head> <body> <h2>Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid – Son Moix, Sep 21, 2025</h2> <p>This early-season La Liga clash pairs a struggling Mallorca (19th) with an under-strength Atletico Madrid (11th). It’s a meeting of contrasting profiles: Mallorca’s defensive frailties versus Atletico’s habit of striking first. The market makes the visitors favorites, but the visitors’ injury list keeps the door ajar for the hosts.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Mallorca have begun 0-1-3, conceding nine in four. They’ve lost heavily to Barcelona and were beaten away by Espanyol, though Vedat Muriqi’s brace showed life in attack. Atletico arrive at 1-2-1—points left behind due to equalizers, not because they fall behind. In all four league games, Diego Simeone’s side scored first and rarely trailed; their issue has been preserving leads, particularly away, where their lead-defending rate is 0%.</p> <h3>Injuries and Lineups</h3> <p>Mallorca miss Javi Llabrés. The structure stays familiar: Leo Román in goal; Valjent and Raíllo anchoring, Mojica and Morey as wide outlets; Darder to knit midfield and supply Muriqi. The Kosovar has three goals and a massive share of Mallorca’s shots on target.</p> <p>Atletico’s news is heavier: Julián Álvarez is out, as are Johnny Cardoso, Álex Baena and Thiago Almada. That removes creativity and a pressing focal point. Expect Oblak behind a back three of Le Normand, Hancko and Ruggeri, with Llorente and Koke leading the midfield structure alongside Barrios. Up top, Sorloth’s physical presence should be complemented by Giuliano Simeone or Griezmann depending on fitness and balance.</p> <h3>Tactical Battle</h3> <p>All evidence points to Atletico’s early pressure. They’ve scored first in every league outing and average the first strike at 15 minutes. Mallorca, by contrast, concede early—at Son Moix their average minute conceded first is around 22, and they’ve been behind at half-time in every match this season. That points to an initial Atlético surge, vertical passing through Llorente and Koke, and Sorloth occupying Mallorca’s center-backs to free second-line runners like Barrios.</p> <p>Mallorca’s counter is simple: supply Muriqi early and often, target set-pieces and second balls. Darder’s passing range and Mojica’s delivery are crucial. Given Atletico’s away lead-defending rate is 0% so far, a Mallorca equalizer—especially from dead-ball situations—is a realistic storyline.</p> <h3>Key Numbers to Know</h3> <ul> <li>Atletico scored first in 4/4; Mallorca’s opponent scored first in 100% of Mallorca’s home games.</li> <li>Mallorca’s 1st-half record: losing at HT in all four; Atletico’s goals: 80% in 1st half.</li> <li>BTTS: Mallorca 75% overall; Atletico 75% overall and 100% away; Atletico away clean sheets: 0%.</li> <li>Lead defending: Mallorca 0%; Atletico 25% overall, 0% away—equalizers are the Achilles’ heel.</li> </ul> <h3>Odds and Value</h3> <p>The books price Atletico at 1.73 to win, reflecting the quality gap. However, the best statistical edge sits earlier in the match: Atletico to score first at 1.57 aligns with both teams’ strongest trends. First-half winner Atletico at 2.25 looks generous considering Mallorca’s 100% half-time deficits. BTTS at 2.00 is attractive with Mallorca’s dependable scoring threat via Muriqi and Atletico’s tendency to concede equalizers on the road.</p> <p>For a player angle, Muriqi anytime at 3.75 carries value: he has 75% of Mallorca’s goals, a high shots-on-target rate, and Atletico haven’t kept an away clean sheet. For a result-combination, Away/Under 3.5 at 2.25 suits a likely 0-1/1-2 profile.</p> <h3>What Decides It?</h3> <p>Whether Atletico can convert early ascendancy into three points despite creative absences. If Mallorca ride out the opening 20 minutes, their set-piece weight—and Muriqi—becomes a real factor. Overall, the data supports Atletico starting fast and Mallorca punching back, with an away win the most likely but BTTS a live runner.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Atletico to strike first and lead at the break; Mallorca to generate enough to score. Final: Mallorca 1-2 Atletico Madrid.</p> </body> </html>
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