Mallorca vs Elche
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<html> <head><title>Mallorca vs Elche: Odds, Form and Key Angles</title></head> <body> <h2>Mallorca vs Elche: Can Son Moix Stop Elche’s Momentum?</h2> <p>Mallorca welcome Elche to Estadi de Son Moix on December 13 with the clubs headed in different directions by venue splits. Mallorca’s home resilience contrasts vividly with Elche’s travel sickness: the islanders take 1.43 points per game at home, while Elche collect just 0.43 away and are still winless on the road.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Mallorca’s season average (0.93 PPG) has ticked up to 1.13 over the last eight league games, a 21.5% improvement. They are harder to beat at home and have gone six home games unbeaten in the current sequence. Meanwhile, Elche’s season average (1.27 PPG) masks a dip to 0.75 across the last eight, despite a cathartic 3-0 home win over Girona last time out.</p> <p>On the table, Elche hold ninth, Mallorca seventeenth, yet those raw ranks don’t capture the granular venue reality. Elche’s home form is strong; away it’s a different story: no wins, four defeats in a row, and opponents have scored first in 100% of their away matches.</p> <h3>Team News and Tactical Implications</h3> <p>Mallorca are hit by the suspension of midfield enforcer Samu Costa (five yellows). He is central to their defensive balance and transition. There’s also serious doubt around captain Antonio Raíllo following facial surgery, removing 1,350 minutes of leadership and aerial presence from the back line if he’s absent. This combination nudges the needle toward Elche finding a goal.</p> <p>Elche have questions around Grady Diangana after a halftime withdrawal against Girona and are likely without André Silva, thinning their forward rotation. However, Rafa Mir’s form – two goals versus Girona and six for the season – maintains a legitimate threat, especially in transition and on crosses into the box.</p> <h3>Where Goals Come From</h3> <p>Both sides are second-half teams. At Son Moix, Mallorca score 71% of their home goals after halftime; Elche grab 67% of their away strikes after the break. Add to that late-game fragility: both teams have conceded seven times between minutes 76–90 this season. Expect the game to open up late as legs tire and benches come into play.</p> <p>Mallorca’s attack revolves around Vedat Muriqi, responsible for 53% of the club’s league goals. His penalty-area dominance, first-contact threat on crosses, and clever hold-up make him the clear alpha option against an Elche back line that concedes 1.71 per game away and hasn’t logged a clean sheet on the road. For Elche, Mir’s movement off the shoulder and willingness to attack the six-yard box complement Aleix Febas’ ball progression and German Valera’s direct running.</p> <h3>Probability Picture and Market Angles</h3> <ul> <li>Mallorca DNB (Home +0): Elche are 0W-3D-4L away. With Mallorca’s six-game home unbeaten run, the safety-first angle outperforms the straight 1x2.</li> <li>BTTS Yes: Mallorca home BTTS 57% and Elche away BTTS 71%. The price suggests a coin flip; the data points higher, particularly with Mallorca’s defensive absences.</li> <li>Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half: Both teams’ splits and late concession patterns all indicate a livelier finish.</li> <li>Correct Score 1-1: Mallorca’s most common home result (43%). It meshes with BTTS and the modest totals profile.</li> <li>Anytime Scorer – Vedat Muriqi: With 8 goals and Elche’s away clean-sheet drought, 2.62 is a fair overlay.</li> </ul> <h3>What To Watch</h3> <p>Set pieces could loom large. Mallorca’s aerial strength with Muriqi and Valjent still matters even if Raíllo sits; Elche’s center-backs (Affengruber, Chust/Bigas) must withstand the first ball and second phases. Transition moments for Elche, especially through Febas’ line-breaking passes into Mir and Valera, could exploit Costa’s absence in midfield for Mallorca.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s Verdict</h3> <p>The venue split rules. Mallorca are sturdier at home than their table position suggests; Elche’s away profile is materially weaker than their ninth place implies. The Oracle backs Mallorca on Draw No Bet to protect against the draw-heavy tendencies at Son Moix, while expecting both teams to land a punch and the game to crest after halftime. If you like a longer shot that harmonizes with the numbers, 1-1 at 5.25 is the correct-score dart.</p> </body> </html>
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