Cadiz vs Eibar

<div> <h2>Cadiz vs Eibar: Form, Edges and Value Bets</h2> <p>Cadiz host Eibar at the Nuevo Mirandilla in a compelling early-season Segunda División clash. The Andalusians have settled swiftly after relegation, while Eibar arrive with strong home results but lingering away concerns. With both sides sitting top-half—Cadiz 5th on 8 points, Eibar 7th on 7—this is a genuine litmus test.</p> <h3>Team News and Tactical Notes</h3> <p>Cadiz are without key centre-back Fali (knee) and goalkeeper David Gil (meniscus), but Victor Aznar has deputised decently in goal. The rest of the XI has continuity, likely in a 4-4-2/4-2-3-1 hybrid emphasizing width through Suso and Ontiveros, with Brian Ocampo as a direct goal threat. Eibar are close to full strength (Madariaga out), leaning on a balanced 4-2-3-1 with Aleix Garrido’s creativity and wide threat via José Corpas.</p> <h3>Venue Split: Why Cadiz Hold Serve</h3> <p>Cadiz at home have been exemplary: 2 wins from 2, conceding just 0.5 goals per game and leading at half-time in 100% of those matches. They’ve scored first in both home fixtures and defended leads at a 67% clip. Eibar’s away split is the mirror image: 0.50 PPG, conceded 1.5 per game, time leading just 7%, and a lead-defending rate of 0%. This combination underpins the value on the home win.</p> <h3>Flow and Timing: Expect a Stronger Second Half</h3> <p>Both teams are second-half skewed. Cadiz have 57% of their goals after the interval (and a notable three goals from 76-90), while Eibar register a striking 71% of their goals in the second half. Cadiz have not conceded in the final quarter-hour, an important pointer for late-game markets like “Team to Score Last.”</p> <h3>Matchups to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Brian Ocampo vs Eibar full-backs: Ocampo’s two goals already and dribble success can target Eibar’s away concessions.</li> <li>Iza Carcelén’s overlap: 2 assists and 6 key passes—his delivery can create high-quality chances against an Eibar unit that struggles to defend leads on the road.</li> <li>Javi Martón’s movement: Eibar’s forward has scored twice; Cadiz’s makeshift back line must track him, especially on transitions and at 46-60 minutes when Eibar often strike.</li> </ul> <h3>Statistical Picture vs Market</h3> <p>Markets rate Cadiz around even money (2.00), which looks generous given home splits. BTTS is priced 2.00; Eibar’s away BTTS is 100% so far, while Cadiz’s overall BTTS is 75%—that price compensates for Cadiz’s better home defending. Highest-scoring half: 2nd at 2.15 aligns tightly with both teams’ late-goal bias.</p> <h3>Prop Value: The Tabatadze Effect</h3> <p>Iuri Tabatadze has 3 of Cadiz’s 7 goals (43%) and a clear late-finishing profile (Albacete 90’, brace at 77’ and 79’ vs Real Sociedad B). At 4.00 anytime, the number bakes in sub risk but still offers solid value if he sees 30+ minutes; check lineups and in-play price if he starts.</p> <h3>What Could Go Wrong?</h3> <p>Small samples can mislead early in the season. Cadiz’s home clean-sheet rate (50%) contradicts Eibar’s away BTTS (100%), creating variance around the BTTS position. Also, Cadiz are missing Fali—set-piece and aerial defense must be alert against Arbilla/Marco Moreno’s presence.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Cadiz’s venue superiority and first-goal/HT trends tip the scales. The home win at 2.00 is the standout. With both teams stronger after the break, angles around second-half supremacy and Cadiz to score last complement the primary play. BTTS at 2.00 is viable value given Eibar’s away profile, though slightly lower confidence due to Cadiz’s home defending.</p> <h3>Recommended Bets (Summary)</h3> <ul> <li>Cadiz to win (2.00)</li> <li>BTTS – Yes (2.00)</li> <li>Highest scoring half – 2nd (2.15)</li> <li>Team to score last – Cadiz (1.75)</li> <li>Anytime scorer – Iuri Tabatadze (4.00)</li> </ul> </div>