Deportivo La Coruna vs Almeria
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Match Preview
<html> <head><title>Deportivo La Coruña vs Almería – Data-Led Match Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Context and Stakes</h2> <p>League leaders Deportivo La Coruña host mid-table Almería at the Estadio Abanca-Riazor on October 4. Deportivo arrive unbeaten (W4 D3) and top of both the main table and the form table, while Almería (W3 D2 L2) have steadied after a choppy start. Both sides have had a full week’s rest since their September 27 fixtures, so energy levels should be high.</p> <h3>Venue Split: Riazor Fortress vs Travel-Trimmed Almería</h3> <p>Three home matches, zero goals conceded—Deportivo’s defensive foundation at Riazor has been exemplary. The scorelines (4–0, 1–0, 0–0) tell a story: opponents are suffocated, and the matches tend to be lower event than Depor’s away games. Almería, for their part, have been respectable travelers (1.75 PPG), with two clean sheets and two 1–0 wins on the road. Their away goal profile is modest (1.25 GF/GA), a key nudge toward a tighter contest.</p> <h3>Form and Flow</h3> <p>Deportivo’s seven-match unbeaten run features late-game quality: 56% of their goals come after the break and they’ve struck six times in the 76–90 minute window. Almería mirror that second-half tilt (62% of goals scored, 69% conceded after HT) and have conceded late as well. Expect the cage to rattle more after halftime.</p> <h3>Tactical Picture and Key Players</h3> <p>Deportivo’s 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 morphs keep wide threats active (Yeremay Hernández, David Mella) and supply lines into finisher Zakaria Eddahchouri, who has five goals in just 288 league minutes. Mario Soriano and Luismi Cruz add guile and ball-carrying. At the back, Dani Barcia anchors a unit that’s delivered 3/3 clean sheets at home; keeper Germán Parreño has 24 saves across seven games.</p> <p>Almería’s danger lies in the high-output trio of Sergio Arribas and Adrián Embarba (four league goals each), with Leo Baptistão chipping in. Arribas’ movement between lines and set-piece threat are genuine tests for Depor’s back four. Squad notes from local reports suggest José Ángel Jurado is doubtful; monitor any last-minute updates around midfield depth. Almería’s away shape has been pragmatic, favoring compactness and quick surges through Arribas/Embarba in transition.</p> <h3>The Numbers Behind Our Betting Angles</h3> <ul> <li>Under 2.5 goals: Deportivo home matches average 1.67 total goals; only 33% have gone over 2.5. Almería away averages 2.50 with two 1–0 wins. Deportivo boast 100% home clean sheets.</li> <li>Home Draw No Bet: Deportivo’s Riazor split—2.33 PPG, zero conceded, 100% lead-defending—lines up with an unbeaten streak and top-of-table momentum. DNB limits risk at a still-workable price.</li> <li>BTTS No: Deportivo’s home BTTS is 0% so far. Almería’s away BTTS is 50%, so the plus-money on “No” looks justified when blended with Depor’s clean-sheet trend.</li> <li>Highest scoring half – 2nd half: Both sides cluster goals after halftime (Depor 56% GF; Almería 62% GF and 69% GA), with pronounced activity from 76–90 minutes.</li> </ul> <h3>Possible Line-ups and Match Pattern</h3> <p>Deportivo could keep faith with Parreño; Loureiro, Barcia, Ximo Navarro/Comas, Escudero; Villares plus one holding midfielder; Soriano and Luismi feeding Yeremay and Eddahchouri. Almería may go André Fernández; Marcos Luna, Bonini, Chumi, Álex Muñoz; Lopy, Guedes; Embarba, Arribas, Melamed; Baptistão. Expect Deportivo to control territory, Almería to lurk for counters. With Depor rarely conceding first at home and defending leads impeccably, the onus is on Almería to craft high-quality transitions.</p> <h3>Verdict and Value</h3> <p>The venue split and defensive metrics lean toward a tighter scoreline than Almería’s wild early-season totals suggest. Our model favors Under 2.5 at even money as the top edge, with Deportivo DNB as a sensible anchor. If you want a price-driven flier, the home clean sheet at 3.25 correlates with the primary angle. For player value, Eddahchouri’s anytime at 2.88 stands out given his conversion rate and late-game punch against tiring legs.</p> <h3>Best Bets</h3> <p>1) Under 2.5 Goals (2.00). 2) Deportivo DNB (1.53). 3) BTTS No (2.15). 4) Highest Scoring Half – 2nd (1.95). Small stake: Eddahchouri anytime (2.88).</p> </body> </html>
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