AD Ceuta FC vs Mirandes
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<html> <head><title>Ceuta vs Mirandés: Statistical Steel vs Away Resilience</title></head> <body> <h2>Ceuta’s defensive surge meets Mirandés’ away stubbornness</h2> <p>At the Alfonso Murube on Saturday afternoon, two contrasting trajectories collide. Ceuta arrive unbeaten in six and on a three-game home winning streak, underpinned by a sequence of four consecutive clean sheets. Mirandés, by contrast, are winless in five and mired in attacking inconsistency, yet their away record is quietly respectable with four unbeaten on the spin (WWDD). The market makes Ceuta favourites at 1.91, but the more pronounced angle may be the rhythm of the game: slow, territorial, and low-scoring.</p> <h3>Why the totals matter</h3> <p>Few Segunda grounds suppress goals like the Murube has early on. Ceuta’s home matches average just 1.5 total goals with only 25% clearing two goals. That dovetails with improving defensive numbers: they’ve conceded only twice at home (0.5 per game) and lead-defend at a 75% clip. The goalkeeper position has been a strength, with Guille Vallejo posting a strong shot-stopping profile and a 7.29 match rating across seven appearances.</p> <p>Mirandés complicate the picture: away from Anduva they score 1.6 per game and have not failed to score often. Their away BTTS rate sits at a lofty 80%. But the trend line matters—Valladolid 1-1 and Andorra 1-1 suggest a cooling attack, and the loss of key creative profiles in the off-season has dented their chance creation. A 0-0 home draw with Leganés last time out further underlines a blunt edge in possession.</p> <h3>First goal dictates the politics</h3> <p>Game state is king in Segunda. Ceuta are a binary team: 2.5 PPG when scoring first, 0.0 when conceding first this season. They’ve scored first in 75% of home matches and run the clock well (time leading 40%, lead-defending 75%). The flip side for Mirandés is an equalising rate of just 20% overall, though their away equalising rate (50%) hints at more resilience on the road. In short, Mirandés need the opener to maximise their away upside; if Ceuta score first, the hosts’ positional block and time management can suffocate the contest.</p> <h3>Tactical beats and matchups</h3> <p>Expect Ceuta to keep the mid-block compact, lean on Carlos Hernández’s aerial presence and José Matos’ proactive wide defending, and draw Mirandés into a slower, lateral passing game. In attack, Marcos Fernández provides penalty-box gravity and runs off the near post, while Youness Lachhab brings composure between the lines. Mirandés will try to disrupt tempo with Marino Illescas’ line-breaking carries and get Gonzalo Petit attacking the space behind the fullback; Carlos Fernández’s penalty record is an ever-present threat.</p> <h3>Set-pieces and corners outlook</h3> <p>The corners market sits a touch high. Combined averages hover around 8.8–8.9 with Ceuta home at 8.75. Mirandés away totals nudge up, but the Murube tempo tends to flatten corner counts, especially if Ceuta get ahead and sit in longer spells. Under 9.5 corners represents a sensible derivative for those aligning with a low-events game script.</p> <h3>Numbers vs price: where’s the value?</h3> <ul> <li>Under 2.25 goals at 1.80 covers the dominant Murube pattern with a half-win on exactly two; Ceuta’s home under trend (only 25% over 1.5) and a four-match clean-sheet streak are decisive tells.</li> <li>Ceuta & Under 2.5 at 3.75 captures the modal scoreline (1-0) witnessed twice already at home. Positive correlation enhances the edge.</li> <li>BTTS No at 1.73 leans into Ceuta’s suppression (home BTTS 25%), discounting Mirandés’ earlier, more frenetic away games.</li> <li>Anytime Marcos Fernández at 2.75: in a low-goal match the first goal is disproportionately valuable; Fernández has provided it often enough to justify a small stake.</li> </ul> <h3>Intangibles: travel and sentiment</h3> <p>Ceuta’s unique geography amplifies home advantage—an away trip that’s logistically trickier than most. With local sentiment buoyant and defensive organization clearly upgraded from last year, the hosts are trending towards playoff-chasing territory. Mirandés’ off-season churn left them thinner; the manager’s under pressure, and while away resilience is real, their margin for error in low-total games is slim.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Ceuta to edge it by a single goal in a tight affair feels right: 1-0 or 2-0 most likely, with 1-1 as the main draw risk. Expect long phases of control from the hosts, few big chances, and the scoreboard to stay modest.</p> </body> </html>
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