Granada CF vs Cadiz
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<html> <head><title>Granada vs Cádiz: Tactical Preview, Odds and Key Angles</title></head> <body> <h2>Granada vs Cádiz: Promotion push meets a rebuild under pressure</h2> <p>Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes hosts a study in contrasts: 19th-placed Granada needing stability, and third-placed Cádiz aiming to cement a promotion bid. The numbers are stark—Granada’s home return is poor (0.80 points per game), while Cádiz’s identity is built on compact shape and ruthlessly efficient game-state control. The Oracle expects a cagey opening followed by a more eventful second half, with Cádiz’s first-goal prowess looming large.</p> <h3>Form and momentum</h3> <p>Granada’s headline is mini-stability: unbeaten in five with two consecutive clean sheets. A 5-2 demolition of Real Sociedad B showcased their ceiling, but surrounding outputs—0-0 vs Las Palmas and 0-0 at FC Andorra—underline an attack still finding cohesion, made harder by Mohamed Bouldini’s injury. Cádiz arrive off a 1-3 setback to Burgos, but that blip doesn’t overshadow a body of work: four wins in the last eight, third in the table, and among the division’s best defensive records (0.9 GA per game, 50% clean sheets).</p> <h3>Tactics board: 4-3-3 vs 4-4-2</h3> <p>Granada’s probable 4-3-3 leans on Sergio Ruiz’s control and Pedro Alemañ’s link play to feed wide threats like Álex Sola and Souleymane Faye. Without Bouldini, box presence is diminished, so second-line runners and set pieces become vital. Luca Zidane’s form (7.18 rating) is a cushion behind a back line still bedding in.</p> <p>Cádiz’s 4-4-2 is direct but technical on the flanks. Suso and Javi Ontiveros stitch together transitions; Álvaro García Pascual provides a focal point; and Iuri Tabatadze is the late-game dagger. Full-back Isaac Carcelén (10 key passes, 2 assists) offers deliveries that trouble back posts, while Iker Recio and Bojan Kovačević marshal a no-frills back two. Absences for Fali and Joaquín reduce depth but the structure remains sound.</p> <h3>Key matchups</h3> <p>- Carcelén vs Diallo: Cádiz’s right-back attacking lane against Granada’s left side, where Bäila Diallo can be exposed if isolated. Early crosses will test Granada’s center-backs.</p> <p>- Ruiz/Trigueros vs Diakité: Middle-third control. Moussa Diakité sets Cádiz’s defensive tone; if he slows Granada’s tempo, the home side’s chance creation will trend to low-value crosses.</p> <p>- Tabatadze vs Granada’s late-phase defending: With Granada conceding 67% of home goals after half-time, the Georgian’s timing into channels could be decisive.</p> <h3>Goal timing and game state</h3> <p>Granada’s opponent scored first in 60% of home games; Cádiz scored first in 70% overall and lead just 12% of total match time trailing. That mix gives Cádiz a path: get ahead, compress space, and break through Ontiveros/Suso. The match profile points to a quieter first half with more volatility after the hour—both teams skew second-half for goals for and against, and Granada’s 76-90’ output (0 GF at home) contrasts with Cádiz’s late-edge (three goals in that window).</p> <h3>Set pieces, cards, and corners</h3> <p>With Cádiz happy to defend deep and foul zones around the wide channels, card accumulation is a watchpoint; Carcelén (4Y), Recio (4Y), and Climent (5Y) speak to an aggressive back line. Corners should be modest—the combined average sits around 8.4, consistent with a controlled away performance by Cádiz and Granada’s slower build-up without Bouldini’s near-post runs.</p> <h3>Odds and value</h3> <p>The market favors Granada slightly at home, but The Oracle sees value on Cádiz-oriented angles. The standout is Cádiz to score first at 2.30, anchored by the 70% first-goal rate vs Granada’s home vulnerability. Draw/Cádiz double chance at 1.58 suits the game state and Granada’s struggles to come from behind (0.00 PPG at home when conceding first). Second-half highest scoring at 2.15 aligns with both teams’ timing splits. Corners under 9.5 at 1.80 is supported by the data trend. For a player prop, Tabatadze anytime at 4.00 is attractive given usage, finishing form, and Granada’s late concessions.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s verdict</h3> <p>Cádiz’s structure and first-goal profile travel well. Granada’s recent clean sheets are a step forward, but without Bouldini’s finishing they may struggle to translate phases of pressure. Expect Cádiz to engineer the decisive moments, particularly after half-time.</p> </body> </html>
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