AD Ceuta FC vs Almeria
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<html> <head> <title>Ceuta vs Almería – Segunda División Preview & Betting Analysis</title> </head> <body> <h2>Ceuta vs Almería: Defensive Steel Meets Form Team</h2> <p>Estadio Alfonso Murube hosts a classic Segunda clash of styles: Ceuta’s venue-driven defensive control against an Almería side riding a seven-match unbeaten run. The table says 10th vs 2nd, but the venue splits tell a more nuanced story.</p> <h3>Venue Dynamics: Ceuta’s Fortress Factor</h3> <p>At home, Ceuta have been exceptionally efficient: 2.40 points per game, 0.40 goals conceded per game, and 60% clean sheets. They’ve won 80% of their home matches, and the scoreboard rarely balloons—total goals average 1.60 at this ground, with only 20% of home games clearing over 2.5. They score first in 80% of home fixtures and defend leads at an 80% clip. In Segunda’s grind, that’s elite.</p> <h3>Almería’s Form Versus Travel Drag</h3> <p>Almería have momentum: two straight wins and unbeaten in seven. They’ve climbed to second with 17 points in their last eight (best in the league form table), and their creators are humming—Sergio Arribas (5G, 4A) and Adri Embarba (6G, 2A) lead a multifaceted threat. But away from home Almería’s profile stabilizes: 1.50 PPG, 1.17 GF and 1.17 GA, and only 33% over 2.5 goals. They’ve yet to fail to score this season, but this is one of the toughest defensive assignments in the division.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchup: First Goal as the Decider</h3> <p>Ceuta’s game-state numbers are stark: 2.67 PPG when scoring first, 0.00 PPG when conceding first. At home, they tilt matches early and squeeze the tempo. Almería counter with a superb equalizing rate (75% away, 78% overall) and a second-half bias in scoring, but Ceuta’s control of territory and compactness have stifled visiting attacks.</p> <h3>Goal Timing and Set Piece Nuances</h3> <p>Ceuta’s home goals skew to the first half (67% of home GF) and they rarely get dragged into shootouts. Almería are a second-half team (57% of GF overall, 62% at home), yet their away split is flatter and less explosive. This points to a cagey total, with the value leaning under rather than chasing Almería’s overall high-scoring aggregate driven mostly by home fixtures.</p> <h3>Key Players to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Sergio Arribas (Almería): 5 goals, 4 assists, 34 key passes – the primary chance engine between lines.</li> <li>Adrián Embarba (Almería): 6 goals, 2 assists, volume shooter who attacks half-spaces.</li> <li>José Matos (Ceuta): Threat on overlaps and has chipped in with goals; key in transition.</li> <li>Guille Vallejo (Ceuta): 7.15 rating and 24 saves in 10 appearances; anchor of home clean sheets.</li> </ul> <h3>Statistical Edges and Betting View</h3> <p>The market prices totals closer to Almería’s overall season profile than to Ceuta’s home reality. With Ceuta’s home over 2.5 hitting only 20% and Almería’s away over 2.5 at 33%, the fair line for 2.25 sits below the current 2.20 under price—creating an actionable edge. Ceuta’s Double Chance also rates well given an 80% home win rate, Almería’s away fail-to-win at 67%, and the venue/travel tax associated with Ceuta.</p> <h3>Projected Game Script</h3> <p>Expect Ceuta to compress space, slow the tempo, and try to land the first punch. If they score first—as their 80% home rate suggests—Almería will be forced to chase into a structure that has conceded just two home goals all season. If Almería break through, their 78% equalizing rate hints at resilience, but the match tilts under more often than not given the hosting environment.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s Lean</h3> <p>Unders and Ceuta to avoid defeat are the angles that best reconcile league form with venue reality. For a price-led dart, 1-0 Ceuta at 8.00 matches the recurring home pattern of narrow wins and clean sheets.</p> </body> </html>
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