Eibar vs Mirandes
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<html> <head><title>Eibar vs Mirandés: Odds, Form, and Tactical Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Eibar vs Mirandés: Why Ipurua Tilts This Relegation Scrap</h2> <p>Eibar host Mirandés at Ipurua looking to parlay sturdy home form into three critical points. The table says 18th vs 22nd, but the venue split makes this less about the standings and more about profiles: Eibar are a top-5 home side by points, Mirandés a vulnerable traveler whose games skew open.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Eibar’s 3-0 dismantling of Valladolid before the break ended a five-game winless run and marked a second straight league clean sheet. The hosts have been far better at Ipurua: 1.80 points per game, 1.60 scored and only 0.80 conceded, with a 50% clean-sheet rate.</p> <p>Mirandés arrive off back-to-back defeats and a winless run of three. Over the last eight, they’ve lost five times. Their away data sums up the problem: 0.90 PPG and 1.60 conceded per trip, often giving up key moments late.</p> <h3>Tactics and Matchups</h3> <p>Eibar’s 4-2-3-1 underlines structure and second-half pressure. They’re powerful after the interval—69% of their home goals post-HT—and dangerous from set pieces. Veteran defender Anaitz Arbilla (three league goals) has been a quiet difference-maker in dead-ball situations, where Mirandés have shown vulnerability.</p> <p>For Mirandés, the green shoots come from youth: Gonzalo Petit’s energy (four goals) and Iker Varela’s direct threat can trouble any defense in transition. But in game-state terms, Mirandés struggle when they go behind: away PPG after conceding first is an anemic 0.17. Ipurua’s compact pitch and feisty rhythm amplify Eibar’s set-piece and crossing advantage, especially as the game stretches in the final half-hour.</p> <h3>Key Statistical Drivers</h3> <ul> <li>Home strength: Eibar home PPG 1.80; clean sheets 50%; lead defending rate 71%.</li> <li>Away openness: Mirandés away total goals average 2.90; BTTS away 70%; over 2.5 away 50%.</li> <li>Second-half bias: Eibar score 69% of their home goals after HT; Mirandés away score 62% after HT and concede late (high GA 76-90’ overall).</li> </ul> <h3>Odds and Value</h3> <p>Markets shade Eibar at 1.61 to win—fair and still a touch of value given home superiority and Mirandés’ poor response when trailing. The bigger inefficiencies lie in totals: Over 2.5 at 2.20 looks generous against a blended hit rate around 55%. BTTS at 2.05 counters Eibar’s home clean sheets, but Mirandés’ 70% away BTTS signals an edge worth playing at smaller stakes.</p> <p>“Highest scoring half: second” at 2.20 aligns with both sides’ habit of growing into games. If you prefer derivatives, combining Eibar win with a goals angle would be attractive—though the listed menu offers Result/Under 2.5 at 3.25 as a contrarian lean for those siding with Eibar’s defense.</p> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Jon Bautista (Eibar): Recently back among the goals, occupies center-backs and opens space for wingers.</li> <li>José Corpas (Eibar): Three league goals, penalty duty a plus in tight games.</li> <li>Anaitz Arbilla (Eibar): Set-piece menace; three goals make 13.00 anytime a worthy flyer.</li> <li>Gonzalo Petit (Mirandés): Four goals in limited minutes; Mirandés’ best outlet if chasing.</li> </ul> <h3>Intangibles</h3> <p>Weather in early January at Eibar is typically cool and damp. On the small Ipurua pitch, that often means quicker turnovers, more aerial duels, and a premium on restarts—factors that lean into Eibar’s profile. Fan sentiment favors the hosts to grind out a needed win, with Mirandés carrying the pressure of 22nd place.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s Verdict</h3> <p>Eibar’s home split and game-state control point to a home win. The totals markets are more generous than usual for Segunda, and the data supports second-half action. Stake strongest on Eibar to win and Over 2.5, supplement with BTTS Yes and second-half highest scoring. Sprinkle a small stake on Arbilla anytime at 13.00 for set-piece upside.</p> </body> </html>
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