Alhama vs Deportivo de La Coruña W

<div> <h2>Alhama W vs Deportivo de La Coruña W: Cagey battle expected at Pinatar Arena</h2> <p>Two sides searching for early-season stability meet in Murcia, and the data points strongly toward a tactical, low-scoring arm-wrestle rather than a shootout. Alhama arrive buoyed by a 4-2 away win at DUX Logroño, but their home form remains a concern after heavy reverses against Tenerife and Barcelona. Deportivo have been patchy—commendable clean sheets and a 1-0 win over Athletic at home, offset by a 4-0 defeat at Real Madrid and a late 1-2 loss to Madrid CFF.</p> <h3>Form and venue dynamics</h3> <p>Both teams mirror each other in their weakest environments: Alhama at home (0.5 PPG, 0.5 GF, 2.5 GA) and Deportivo away (0.5 PPG, 0.5 GF, 2.5 GA). That symmetry signals a tight contest in which neither side holds a clear edge. The standout split is Deportivo’s away-state profile—0% scoring first, losing at half-time in both away matches, and trailing for 60% of minutes—suggesting Alhama should take early initiative.</p> <h3>Defensive frailties vs attacking limitations</h3> <p>Alhama’s defensive metrics are poor (3.00 GA per match vs a 1.34 league average), but that number is inflated by matches against Barcelona and Tenerife. Deportivo’s attack is more concerning: just 0.60 goals per match and 0.50 away, relying on midfield contributors rather than a prolific center-forward. That blend—leaky Alhama defense, goal-shy Deportivo attack—often resolves into one-sided scoring rather than an open BTTS outcome.</p> <h3>Timing tells: expect a busier second half</h3> <p>Alhama’s matches load heavier after the interval, with 55% of total goals arriving in the second half and 80% of their home concessions occurring after half-time. Deportivo score two-thirds of their goals in the second half across all venues. Overlay that with both teams conceding in the 76–90 window and you have a strong case for the second period to eclipse the first in goal output.</p> <h3>Tactical notes and key absences</h3> <p>Deportivo will be without defender Samara Ortiz, enforcing a backline reshuffle with Elena Vázquez stepping in. The midfield hub belongs to the experienced Bárbara Latorre, whose passing tempo and set-piece delivery will be crucial to unlocking Alhama. For Alhama, the form uptick of Yaiza Relea Ramos (brace last time out) adds a vertical threat to Belén Martínez and Raquel Pinel’s penalty-box craft. Expect Alhama to start on the front foot, targeting Deportivo’s slow starts on the road.</p> <h3>What the numbers mean for bettors</h3> <p>The best-supported angle is Both Teams to Score – No at 1.93. BTTS Yes hits only 40% for both sides overall; Alhama have failed to score in 60% of matches, and Deportivo’s away attack is sputtering. The first half should be relatively conservative: under 1 on the goal line at 1.85 has strong push protection given Alhama’s home half-time history and Deportivo’s tendency to chase later. The second half being the highest scoring at 2.06 is a plus-money contrarian that aligns with both teams’ late-goal profiles.</p> <h3>Scoreline and result lean</h3> <p>There is a live case for the draw at 3.00—both teams’ draw rates sit at 40%, and their venue weaknesses cancel out. The 1-1 correct score at 5.25 fits the pattern of modest totals, an Alhama-led first half, and a Deportivo response when legs tire. If one side is to nick it, Alhama’s probability of scoring first (vs Deportivo’s 0% away record) nudges the needle slightly toward the hosts.</p> <h3>Bottom line</h3> <p>Early-season caveats apply, but the matchup profile favors a tight, attritional contest with long stretches decided by midfield control and set-pieces. Alhama to score first, a stronger second half, and at least one team failing to score are the most consistent threads running through the data.</p> </div>