AS Eupen vs Olympic Charleroi

<div> <h2>Eupen vs OC Charleroi: Home control meets fragile travelers</h2> <p>Kehrwegstadion plays host on December 21 as Eupen welcome bottom-placed OC Charleroi. The reverse fixture in October ended 1-0 to Eupen, Nathan Bitumazala striking early and Nicolas Gavory providing the assist. Two months on, Eupen sit in the top six with a solid home platform, while Charleroi are still fighting at the wrong end despite a recent uptick on the road.</p> <h3>Form and trajectory</h3> <p>Eupen’s last eight shows a steady uptick: 1.75 PPG over that span versus 1.63 season-wide, alongside back-to-back league wins including a 2-1 home triumph over Club Brugge B and a 1-0 at Seraing. Their home baseline is strong: 2.00 PPG, 0.86 GA, and 43% clean sheets. Charleroi’s broader season form is poor (0.65 PPG), but the last eight has improved to 1.25 PPG with away resilience: a 4-3 win at Genk B and a 3-3 at RWDM signal a livelier front line.</p> <h3>Venue dynamics and game state</h3> <p>Eupen’s home match-state control is a defining edge. They’ve scored first in 71% of home matches and have spent just 3% of home minutes trailing. Their lead-defending rate at home (67%) sits above league average, while OC Charleroi’s overall ability to defend a lead is a stark 29%. This tension—home control vs away fragility—frames the likely arc: Eupen impose territory, handle transitions, and squeeze Charleroi into longer defensive sequences.</p> <h3>Tactical matchup</h3> <p>Expect Eupen’s wide progression—via Yentl Van Genechten and Gavory—to pin back Charleroi’s full-backs, with Isaac Nuhu and Logan Delaurier-Chaubet attacking half-spaces. Zakaria Atteri’s movement has delivered 3 goals and a steady xThreat profile; he thrives when Eupen deliver early diagonals and recycle second balls. Charleroi are more dangerous in broken phases—Toshio Lake has pace to threaten depth, while Niklo Dailly’s recent goals underline their threat in transitional chaos. But when asked to soak pressure for long spells, Charleroi’s defensive metrics have cracked repeatedly away (1.86 GA, several matches conceding 3).</p> <h3>Goal timing: late swings</h3> <p>Charleroi’s second-half leakage is stubborn. They’ve conceded 9 times after the break away and 7 times in the 76–90’ window overall. Eupen’s decisive moments frequently arrive after the interval (notable 61’ winner vs Club Brugge B, 52’ strike at Seraing), and their 61–75’ segment is productive. If the first half is cagy, the match is still primed to open up late—exactly where OC Charleroi’s structure has struggled.</p> <h3>Players to watch</h3> <ul> <li>Eupen: Isaac Nuhu (3G) and Delaurier-Chaubet (2G) provide timing and end-product; keeper Marco Hiller’s 7.17 rating underscores Eupen’s defensive reliability.</li> <li>OC Charleroi: Toshio Lake and Niklo Dailly headline recent away surges, while Mohamed Medfai’s late winner at Genk B was a reminder of their punch in chaos.</li> </ul> <h3>Market view and value</h3> <p>Books set Eupen 1.67 (ML) / 1.70 (-0.5 AH). Given home-state dominance (71% score-first; 3% trailing time) and Charleroi’s 29% lead retention, The Oracle makes Eupen closer to 1.60–1.65. Team total Over 1.5 at 1.73 is appealing considering OC’s travel concessions (3+ allowed in four away matches). The most interesting inefficiency is second-half risk: Over 1.5 (2.00) and Eupen 2H win (2.10) align with Charleroi’s late concessions and Eupen’s habit of landing decisive blows after HT.</p> <h3>Weather and conditions</h3> <p>Eastern Belgium in late December usually means cold, slick conditions—2–5°C with potential rain. That tends to compress first halves and magnify late errors and fatigue, adding weight to second-half markets.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Eupen should reassert home control and claim the points, with enough volatility after the break to see multiple late chances. The Oracle calls it: Eupen 2-1, with the hosts winning the second half.</p> </div>