LD Alajuelense vs CS Cartagines
Match Information
Match Preview
<html> <head> <title>Alajuelense vs Cartaginés Preview, Odds and Betting Analysis</title> </head> <body> <h2>Form and Context</h2> <p>Alajuelense and Cartaginés meet in Alajuela with both sides level on 18 points and tracking as top-four candidates. Recent form data paints a picture of two compact, defensively diligent teams. Alajuelense average 1.70 total goals per match; Cartaginés 1.50—both far below the league’s 2.35. That has translated into elite clean sheet rates (Alajuelense 60% at home; Cartaginés 60% away) and heavy unders across their venue splits.</p> <h2>Venue Dynamics and Matchup</h2> <p>Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto traditionally provides Alajuelense a clear edge. They post 2.00 points per game at home and score first 80% of the time there. Cartaginés have been competent travelers (1.40 PPG away), but their away matches are low-event: 1.40 total goals per game, only 20% over 2.5, and 20% BTTS. When either team scores first, the opponent rarely recovers—both clubs average 0.00 points per game when conceding first this season—so the opening goal may decide the contest.</p> <h2>Tactical Outlook</h2> <p>Expect a compact, chess-like 90 minutes. Alajuelense’s back line excels at protecting leads (75% lead-defending rate at home), and their time spent trailing is limited. Cartaginés, for their part, sit deep and concede late when they do at all (average minute conceded first 56’). Cartaginés’ second-half defensive drop-off (75% of their goals conceded come after the interval) suggests Alajuelense may grow into the game, especially if conditions are wet in Costa Rica’s rainy season.</p> <h2>Injury News and Selection</h2> <p>Team news tilts marginally toward the hosts. Alajuelense are reportedly without defender Aaron Salazar, but have depth across the back. Cartaginés’ list is heavier: Cristopher Núñez and Suhander Zúñiga are significant attacking/creative absences, along with Leonardo Alfaro, Jose Quiros, and Everardo Rubio. With offensive firepower reduced, Cartaginés’ plan likely centers on containment and set-piece moments.</p> <h2>Key Numbers Driving the Betting Markets</h2> <ul> <li>Over 2.5 hit rate: Alajuelense home 20%, Cartaginés away 20%.</li> <li>BTTS at venue splits: Alajuelense home 20%, Cartaginés away 20%.</li> <li>Clean sheets: Alajuelense home 60%, Cartaginés away 60%.</li> <li>Average minute conceded first: Cartaginés 56’, indicating late concessions and slower game starts.</li> </ul> <p>These figures strongly favor Unders and BTTS No, with a bias to a narrow home result should the Lions grab the opener.</p> <h2>Odds and Value Assessment</h2> <p>Under 2.25 at 1.82 stands out. The implied 55% sits below a reasonable projection around 62–65% given both teams’ defensive records and low shot-quality environments. BTTS No at 1.78 is similarly appealing, with venue splits both at 20% and Cartaginés missing key creators. For those wanting home exposure with protection, Alajuelense -0.25 at 1.62 is reasonable versus the 1x2 price (1.92). With both outfits averaging 0.00 ppg when conceding first, “Team to Score First – Alajuelense” at 1.65 is also justified by the hosts’ 80% home score-first rate.</p> <h2>Props and Long Shots</h2> <p>If you like a bolder stance, Cartaginés Under 0.5 team goals at 2.38 has live value considering Alajuelense’s 60% home clean sheets and the away side’s 40% fail-to-score rate on the road. A 1-0 correct score to Alajuelense at 5.50 mirrors the matchup’s tightness and the Lions’ likelihood of edging the margins.</p> <h2>Projected Flow</h2> <p>Early phases should be cagey, with limited space between the lines. Look for Alajuelense to build pressure after halftime, when Cartaginés historically concede more. Set pieces could decide it, and if the hosts strike first, their game management metrics suggest they close the door.</p> <h2>Best Bet Summary</h2> <p>The Oracle favors a goals-averse script: Under 2.25 and BTTS No as core positions, supplemented by modest exposure to Alajuelense -0.25 and Alajuelense to score first. For price-seekers, Cartaginés Under 0.5 and 1-0 correct score offer attractive risk-reward profiles.</p> </body> </html>
Betting Odds
Odds are currently unavailable.
Odds are provided for informational purposes. Please gamble responsibly.
AI Analysis & Predictions
Get comprehensive AI-powered analysis for this match with our advanced prediction models. Our AI considers team form, head-to-head records, player statistics, and real-time data to provide accurate insights.
- Real-time match predictions
- In-depth statistical analysis
- Live odds monitoring
- Expert betting insights