CS Cartagines vs Perez Zeledon
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<html> <head> <title>Cartaginés vs Pérez Zeledón: Data-Led Match Preview and Betting Analysis</title> </head> <body> <h2>Cartaginés vs Pérez Zeledón – Apertura stakes, defensive steel vs away volatility</h2> <p>Cartaginés welcome Pérez Zeledón with top-of-the-table context and sharply contrasting identities. The hosts bring an elite defensive record—six clean sheets in seven, zero goals conceded at home—against a Zeledón side that has scored frequently but struggled to protect away leads. The market leans to a home win, and most sentiment and recent coverage backs that view.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Cartaginés are unbeaten in six, riding multiple clean sheets and pragmatic game control. Their home split is powerful: 2.33 points per game, 100% clean sheets, and a 67% win-to-nil rate. Zeledón have been resilient in overall results (1.75 PPG) and recently beat Alajuelense before drawing with Puntarenas; away, however, their pattern is volatile (2-2, 1-2, 1-0) with late concessions undermining good starts.</p> <h3>Tactical Tendencies and Timing</h3> <ul> <li>Cartaginés score early at home (average first goal minute 18) and finish strong (76–90: 3 GF).</li> <li>Zeledón away concede late (76–90: 2 GA) and defend leads poorly (25% away lead-defending), inviting late swings.</li> <li>First halves lean cagey: Zeledón have drawn at HT in all three away matches; Cartaginés show 57% overall HT draws.</li> </ul> <p>Expect a measured first half with few openings, the hosts progressively tilting territory and set-piece pressure, and the second half favouring Cartaginés’ structure and bench impact.</p> <h3>Key Matchups and Player Notes</h3> <p>Cartaginés’ scoring is shared—Núñez, Ulloa, Montero, Zúñiga, Pereira—reducing reliance on a single finisher. That breadth pairs with disciplined back-line spacing and strong lead management (100% lead-defending). For Zeledón, Jorman Aguilar’s movement has produced timely goals this Apertura and alongside Joaquin Aguirre and Reyes they’ve carried threat in spurts. The challenge is sustaining that away from home against a defense that simply hasn’t yielded in Cartago.</p> <h3>Markets and Value</h3> <p>The numbers align closely on three fronts:</p> <ul> <li><b>BTTS No</b>: Cartaginés have not seen both teams score in any of their seven matches. Combined with 100% home clean sheets, the 1.77 price looks short but still value versus a fair estimate closer to mid-60% probability.</li> <li><b>Under 2.5 Goals</b>: Cartaginés home games average 1.67 total goals; their defensive suppression trumps Zeledón’s general over trend. At 1.82, Under 2.5 is supported by venue data.</li> <li><b>1H Draw / 2H Home</b>: Zeledón’s 100% away HT draws and late defensive vulnerability point to a tight first half then home control. Bettors can split this via First Half Draw (2.19) and Second Half Winner – Cartaginés (1.90), or combine with HT/FT Draw/Home (4.15) for a higher-variance angle.</li> </ul> <h3>Red Flags and Caveats</h3> <p>The sample is early-season, and Cartaginés’ GA (0.14 per game) is likely to regress toward league norms. Zeledón’s away trend—never conceding first—conflicts with Cartaginés’ early home goals. Nonetheless, the host’s 100% home CS rate and elite lead management are compelling data points that withstand small sample concerns better than most early-season metrics.</p> <h3>Projected Flow</h3> <p>Cartaginés in a 4-2-3-1 structure should compress the middle, reduce transitional space, and rely on balanced goal sources. Zeledón will seek set-piece value and quick counters through Aguilar, but sustained possession in the attacking third will be scarce. Expect a narrow margin, with Cartaginés to assert after the hour.</p> <h3>Best Bets Summary</h3> <ul> <li>BTTS No (1.77): Cartaginés’ clean-sheet machine at home.</li> <li>Under 2.5 (1.82): Venue and defensive profile suppress scoring.</li> <li>First Half Draw (2.19): Zeledón away HT draw streak (3/3).</li> <li>Second Half Winner – Cartaginés (1.90): Late home pressure vs away fade.</li> <li>Win to Nil – Home (2.51): High-upside alignment with BTTS No.</li> </ul> <h3>Bottom Line</h3> <p>Everything points to a low-scoring home-favoured outcome with a premium on Cartaginés’ defensive stability. The clean-sheet angles and first-half draw/second-half home split are the clearest paths to value.</p> </body> </html>
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