Guadalupe FC vs LD Alajuelense

<h2>Guadalupe FC vs LD Alajuelense: Form, Odds and Tactical Preview</h2> <p>Date: 21 September 2025 | Venue: Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca | Kickoff: 21:00 UTC</p> <h3>Context and Stakes</h3> <p>Midway through the Apertura, title-chasing LD Alajuelense visit a Guadalupe side fighting for traction. Alajuelense sit atop the form table (16 points from last 8) and first overall by points per game, while Guadalupe are bottom of the last-8 form table (5 pts) and 10th overall. Sentiment around Alajuelense is buoyant; media and fans expect a professional road win. Guadalupe’s aim is containment and opportunism.</p> <h3>Venue-Specific Performance</h3> <ul> <li>Guadalupe at home: 1.20 PPG, 1.40 GF and 1.40 GA per game. They’ve drawn 60% of home fixtures, with two 0-0s in five.</li> <li>Alajuelense away: 1.75 PPG, 1.00 GF and 0.75 GA. Clean sheets in 50% of away games.</li> <li>Lead/Protect: Alajuelense defend leads superbly (83% lead-defense), vs Guadalupe’s 50% overall and only 9% time leading.</li> </ul> <h3>Current Trajectory and Sequences</h3> <ul> <li>Guadalupe are winless in six overall; conceded 2.13 GA in last 8 (+12.7% vs season). They have trended towards late collapses, including a 90’ equalizer conceded to Liberia.</li> <li>Alajuelense have back-to-back 2-0 home wins and a recent 1-0 away win at Saprissa, with 4 scored and 0 conceded in last two.</li> </ul> <h3>Goal Timing and Match Flow</h3> <ul> <li>Guadalupe’s goals skew late at home: 71% of GF in the second half; 4 of 7 home goals came between 76–90.</li> <li>Alajuelense score later away (average first goal 52’ away), with 75% of away goals in the second half. This makes “2nd half to be higher scoring” a live angle.</li> </ul> <h3>Situational Metrics</h3> <ul> <li>When scoring first: Alaj 3.00 PPG (elite), Guadalupe 1.00 PPG (low). When conceding first: Alaj 0.00 PPG (rarely trail), Guadalupe 0.50 PPG.</li> <li>Alaj time trailing only 14%; Guadalupe trail 43% overall (32% at home), highlighting recurring pressure phases on the hosts.</li> </ul> <h3>Over/Under and BTTS Read</h3> <ul> <li>Alaj matches low-event: 1.63 total goals per game overall; Under 2.5 in 75% of their matches.</li> <li>Guadalupe home matches are volatile (Over 2.5 in 60% and two 0-0s). This contradiction is the main totals “red flag.”</li> <li>BTTS: Alaj 25% overall (defense-dominant) vs Guadalupe 60% at home. Edge leans to “No,” but venue raises variance.</li> </ul> <h3>Players and Tactical Notes</h3> <ul> <li>Alajuelense likely XI: Ortega; Gamboa/Salazar with Oviedo/Matarrita options; Celso Borges anchors midfield; Jeison Lucumí wide; Anthony Hernández and Alberto Toril leading the line, with impact sub Creichel Pérez (recent late winners).</li> <li>Guadalupe danger men: Junior Joao Maleck (goals vs Saprissa and San Carlos), John Jairo Ruiz, Lautaro Ayala, José Paulo Rodríguez.</li> <li>Alaj’s defensive spine (Borges shielding, organized back line) underpins their 0.50 GA. They excel at killing tempo when ahead (83% lead-defending rate).</li> </ul> <h3>Comparative Strength vs League</h3> <ul> <li>Alajuelense outperform league averages in wins (62% vs 35%), clean sheets (62% vs 34%), and time trailing (14% vs 24%).</li> <li>Guadalupe underperform heavily: 0.67 PPG vs 1.35 league; GF 0.89 vs 1.22; GA 1.89 vs 1.22.</li> </ul> <h3>Red Flags & Contradictions</h3> <ul> <li>Totals conflict: Guadalupe’s high-variance home profile vs Alaj’s low-event trend. That’s why we prefer directional and time-slice markets (away win, 2H angles) to blunt totals like full-match Under 2.5.</li> <li>Guadalupe’s home equalizing rate is decent (50%), but they still concede late and struggle to protect leads (50%).</li> </ul> <h3>Odds, Value and Recommendation</h3> <p>With Alajuelense priced at 1.70, the implied 58.8% sits below our model range (62–65%) given away PPG, defensive metrics and form tables. Secondary values: Alaj to score in the second half (1.59) leans on both teams’ late-goal tendencies; Highest Scoring Half – 2nd (2.20) is backed by strong 2H splits; Win to Nil (2.70) aligns with Alaj’s 62% CS vs Guadalupe’s 56% failed-to-score rate. A longshot exact 0-1 (5.80) fits Alaj’s low-scoring away wins and the recent 1-0 H2H.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Alajuelense to win, most likely in a controlled, defense-first performance, with the decisive moment arriving after halftime.</p>