Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu

<div> <h2>Dalian Zhixing vs Shenzhen Peng City: Form, Trends, and Where the Value Lies</h2> <p> The Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium hosts a pivotal September clash as Dalian Zhixing welcome Shenzhen Peng City. While some sources list Sichuan Jiuniu, the statistical feeds and bookmakers’ markets provided here clearly reference Shenzhen Peng City—complete with player prices for Wesley Moraes, Edu García, and Tiago Leonço—so this preview focuses on Shenzhen as the visitors. </p> <h3>Context and Motivation</h3> <p> Dalian sit midtable (9th) with a strong home backbone; Shenzhen are 13th and still glancing over their shoulder. With ample rest since late August and no new injury or suspension news, both teams should field near-best elevens. For Dalian, re-establishing home solidity after three straight league blanks (two heavy away defeats) is key. Shenzhen seek to transfer their occasional attacking surges at home into points on the road, where their record is grim. </p> <h3>Home Fortress vs Travel Sickness</h3> <p> The numbers are stark. Dalian average 2.00 points per game at home, winning 64% of matches and keeping a clean sheet 55% of the time. They also defend leads impeccably (home lead-defending 100%). On the flip side, Shenzhen average 0.36 PPG away with 82% defeats and fail to score in 55% of away fixtures. Their away equalizing rate is 0%—they simply haven’t found a way back into games once behind. This makes Dalian’s price to win (1.91) and especially “win to nil” (3.60) attractive. </p> <h3>Goal Flow: Early Advantage, Late Insurance</h3> <p> Expect an early Dalian edge: they scored first in 64% of home matches, while Shenzhen struck first away just 9%. Shenzhen’s average minute of first concession away is 25, mapping onto Dalian’s steady first-half rhythm. After the break, Shenzhen’s defense tends to fray—conceding 16 in second halves and 8 between minutes 76–90—leaving the door open for a sealing goal if Dalian are already in front. </p> <h3>Totals and BTTS: The Venue Dictates</h3> <p> Dalian home fixtures are typically lower scoring: only 18% finish over 2.5 goals, with BTTS hitting just 18%. Shenzhen’s away games tend to overflow due to their defense, but the best read is that Dalian’s home defensive environment prevails. Hence the top play is BTTS No at 2.20, supported by Dalian’s 55% home clean-sheet rate and Shenzhen’s 55% away FTS. Under 3.5 looks a reasonable parlay anchor, but the bigger pricing edge lies with both teams not to score. </p> <h3>Key Men and Match-Ups</h3> <p> Dalian’s spearhead is Cephas Malele, priced 2.10 to score anytime—good value against a side conceding 2.64 away goals per game. Labyad’s timing and Daniel Penha’s chance creation (seven key passes in limited minutes) should feed the target man and second-wave runners. For Shenzhen, Wesley Moraes is in prolific form, but his away platform is weaker: less service, lower territory, and a venue where visitors frequently blank. If Dalian’s center-backs keep Wesley’s first-touch channels clogged, Shenzhen’s alternative routes haven’t consistently emerged on the road. </p> <h3>What Could Go Wrong?</h3> <p> Dalian’s three-match scoring drought is a red flag, and Wesley’s individual form is a threat to “win to nil” or BTTS No. Additionally, Shenzhen often come alive after halftime. Still, the preponderance of data favors Dalian’s home defense and Shenzhen’s away struggles—especially in the first goal and game-state dynamics. </p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p> With venue-specific edges, lead protection, and away inefficiency aligning, Dalian to win and BTTS No headline the card. A sensible staking plan pairs Dalian ML (1.91) with BTTS No (2.20), sprinkles on Dalian to score first (1.67), and keeps a smaller slice for the bigger-price “win to nil” (3.60). For a player angle, Malele anytime at 2.10 fits the most common home scorelines (1–0, 2–0). </p> </div>