Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing

<div> <h2>Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing — Data-Led Match Preview</h2> <p><strong>Venue:</strong> Yuxi Plateau Sports Center, Yuxi</p> <p><strong>Kick-off:</strong> 19 September 2025, 12:00 UTC</p> <h3>The Context</h3> <p>Ninth hosts eighth in a mid-table clash that carries real consequence for a top-half push. Yunnan Yukun’s home profile is robust; Dalian Zhixing (also listed as Dalian Yingbo) are strong at home but have struggled on the road. With no major injuries or suspensions reported this week, both managers are expected to field stable XIs in good conditions.</p> <h3>Form and Venue Splits</h3> <p>Yunnan’s season-long home return (1.75 points per game) contrasts sharply with Dalian’s away record (0.64 PPG). The underlying goal figures support that split: Yunnan average 1.83 goals for and 1.75 against at home, while Dalian away average only 0.73 for and 2.00 against. Dalian’s recent uptick—five wins in their last eight overall—has been powered by home performances; their last two away matches ended in defeats to nil (0-2 at Tianjin, 0-4 at Henan).</p> <h3>How the Game Might Flow</h3> <p>Expect a measured start but growing Yunnan momentum after the interval. Yunnan score 64% of their home goals in the second half, and Dalian concede heavily late on away from home (12 second-half goals conceded, including six between minutes 76–90). If Yunnan get in front, they protect leads well at home (75% lead-defending rate), while Dalian away struggle to recover when they concede first (0.14 PPG when conceding first).</p> <h3>Key Matchups</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Pedro Henrique & Oscar Taty Maritu (Yunnan)</strong>: Henrique’s penalty threat and Maritu’s direct carries have driven recent home productivity. Tang Miao’s delivery from the right is a secondary supply line.</li> <li><strong>Cephas Malele, Zakaria Labyad, Liu Zhurun (Dalian)</strong>: Labyad and Liu both scored in the 2-1 win on 14 Sep; Malele remains the focal point up front. The trio will test Yunnan’s back line in transition, especially if Penha finds pockets between the lines.</li> </ul> <h3>Tactical Notes</h3> <p>Yunnan are comfortable trading chances at home, but the smarter approach here will be controlled pressure, exploiting Dalian’s late-game drop-offs. Dalian’s best moments come when they compress space and counter; however, their away second-half numbers are alarming. If the visitors chase, Yunnan’s late runners (John Hou Sæter among them) can tilt the balance.</p> <h3>Betting Outlook</h3> <p>The market offers a fair home price at 2.25 outright, but the smarter staking is Asian Handicap 0 at 1.70 to eliminate the draw risk. With Dalian conceding two goals per away match on average, Yunnan Over 1.5 at 1.95 rates well. The highest-scoring half being the second at 1.93 is strongly underpinned by both clubs’ timing splits. For a bigger-price angle, “Yunnan & Under 4.5” at 2.88 captures the likely home-win range without requiring a shootout.</p> <h3>Projected XI (no confirmed absences)</h3> <p><em>Yunnan:</em> GK Zhang Jianzhi; Tang Miao, Burcă, Li Peng, Shi Zhe; John Hou Sæter; Henrique, Maritu plus local attackers rotating.<br/> <em>Dalian:</em> GK; back line anchored by Bi Jinhao; midfield with Daniel Penha; front three featuring Labyad, Liu Zhurun, Malele.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Yunnan’s venue strength and Dalian’s away fragility—particularly after halftime—make the hosts the percentage play. Expect Yunnan to create the better chances late and edge a competitive game. Correct score 2-1 sits well with the data and price.</p> </div>