Yanbian Longding vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
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<html> <head><title>Yanbian Longding vs Chongqing Tongliang Long – Match Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Form Guide and Stakes</h2> <p>Fourth-placed Yanbian Longding host second-placed Chongqing Tongliang Long in a pivotal China League One clash with promotion implications. The table is tight: Chongqing sit on 43 points, Yanbian on 39, and both are eyeing a decisive late-season push. The scheduling is fair—Yanbian last played on Sep 20 and Chongqing on Sep 21—so fatigue shouldn’t skew the contest.</p> <h3>Home Fortress vs Road Firepower</h3> <p>Yanbian’s home record is elite: 10 wins from 12, only 5 goals conceded at home all season (0.42 per game), and an imposing 67% clean sheet rate. They defend leads exceptionally well (91% lead-defending at home) and spend just 7% of home minutes trailing. Chongqing, however, have been the division’s road entertainers—2.50 goals scored per away game and 80% of away matches going over 2.5 goals. They’ve failed to score in 0% of away fixtures, and their late scoring threat led by José Ángel Carrillo has decided matches on the road.</p> <h3>Recent Trajectories Tell a Different Story</h3> <p>Despite season-long excellence, Chongqing’s recent trend is negative: their last eight league matches show a 23% drop in points per game and a 48% rise in goals conceded, punctuated by back-to-back defeats (0–1 vs Guangdong GZP, 3–1 at Dingnan). Yanbian, conversely, have stabilized their defense—0.50 goals against on average across the last eight—and are coming off two straight wins to nil. The momentum edge leans to the hosts.</p> <h3>Timing Patterns and Tactical Picture</h3> <p>Yanbian are patient and controlled at home, with a significant scoring surge after the interval (61–75’ is their prime window). Chongqing’s away Achilles’ heel is early concessions—particularly in the first half, where they’ve allowed four goals in the opening 15 minutes and seven more between 31–45’. That creates a path for Yanbian to strike first and then lean into their elite lead management.</p> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <p>Felicio Brown Forbes leads Yanbian’s line and is their penalty-taker, supported by the energetic Joaquim Domingos and the recently decisive Prince Lucky Ukachukwu (winner at Shaanxi). At the back, expect a sturdy showing from Vas Núñez and company. For Chongqing, Carrillo’s knack for late, match-swinging goals is well-documented, while Yuwang Xiang provides movement and finishing threat from open play. Yanbian’s structure will aim to funnel shots into low-value areas; Chongqing must find width and second-phase pressure to disrupt the hosts’ compactness.</p> <h3>Odds, Angles, and Value</h3> <p>Markets make Chongqing slight favorites away (2.00), but the numbers argue for Yanbian’s resilience at home. The standout value is Yanbian +0.5 (1.78), covering home win and draw against a side trending down defensively. Yanbian to score first (2.40) is also attractive given their 75% home “first goal” rate and Chongqing’s early away concessions. The draw at 3.30 fits a top-four, high-stakes script, especially if Yanbian’s defensive control tempers Chongqing’s normally high-event away profile. Under 2.5 at 1.65 leans on Yanbian’s low-scoring home pattern, though it does battle the visitors’ away dynamics.</p> <h3>Weather and Conditions</h3> <p>Mild, slightly overcast conditions with potential light showers are forecast—favorable for rhythm and ball circulation, and unlikely to materially hinder either plan. Any pitch slickness might even help Yanbian’s quick post-restart surges in the second half.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Data suggests a controlled home performance against a talented but wobbling visitor. Yanbian’s defensive structure and game-state mastery should mitigate Chongqing’s firepower more than the market implies.</p> <p><strong>Projected outcome:</strong> Yanbian Longding not to lose. Lean 1–0 or 1–1 in a tight, tactical battle.</p> </body> </html>
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