CSKA Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia

<div> <h2>CSKA Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia: Data says clean sheet; odds still generous</h2> <p>CSKA Sofia return to Vasil Levski targeting a much-needed kickstart against a Septemvri Sofia side that has looked organized at home but dismal on the road. With no major injuries reported and continued stability under coach Dušan Kerkez, CSKA are heavy favorites, and the numbers back that up—especially when you zoom into venue-specific trends.</p> <h3>Venue split defines the matchup</h3> <p>Three away trips, three losses, nine conceded: Septemvri’s away profile is the single biggest driver of this match-up. They’ve failed to score in two of those three road games, with opponents scoring first 100% of the time and doing so early (average first concession: 14’). Their away time spent trailing is an eye-watering 85%. By contrast, while CSKA’s overall start has been sluggish (0W-4D-2L), they defend far better at home than their league position suggests—only two goals conceded in three home matches (0.67 GA/game) and a 33% home clean-sheet rate.</p> <h3>First-half picture: early pressure expected</h3> <p>CSKA have tended to strike early (average first goal at home minute 7), and this maps directly onto Septemvri’s early-away concessions. Statistically, that supports CSKA leading at the break: Septemvri have been behind at half-time in all three of their away matches. It’s a strong case for HT/FT Home/Home and for a speculative angle on CSKA “First 10 minutes – Winner.”</p> <h3>Totals and BTTS: narrow CSKA win profile</h3> <p>Totals are where the market can overreact to Septemvri’s high-scoring overall slate (3.14 total goals per match). CSKA’s home games have been turgid in attack (1.0 total goals per game; none over 2.5). Blending these, results cluster around 1-0, 2-0, and 3-0. BTTS rates are low for both sides in these splits (CSKA home 33%, Septemvri away 33%), reinforcing BTTS No and a CSKA clean sheet. Under 3.5 offers a sensible cushion over the more fragile Over 2.5.</p> <h3>Player to watch: Ioannis Pittas</h3> <p>Ioannis Pittas has quietly posted elite shot volume—11 attempts and five on target from just two appearances—and already opened his account. Against a defense conceding three per away game and yielding early chances, Pittas projects as the likeliest CSKA scorer. Leandro Godoy’s recent goal underlines multiple threats, but Pittas at 1.83 anytime balances probability and price nicely.</p> <h3>Tactical expectations</h3> <p>Kerkez’s CSKA should press for an early lead, leveraging Septemvri’s vulnerability in the first quarter-hour. Expect CSKA’s fullbacks (Pinto’s progression and Dellova’s ball security) to sustain territory while minimizing transitions. If CSKA score first—as the numbers strongly imply—Septemvri’s equalizing rate away (0%) and habit of trailing for long stretches should keep the hosts comfortable. The only caveat is CSKA’s poor lead retention so far (leadDefendingRate 0%), but Septemvri away lack the punch to capitalize, making a clean sheet the most logical anchor bet.</p> <h3>Odds and value</h3> <ul> <li>Clean Sheet – Home 1.53: Supported by 67% Septemvri away blanks; early concessions trend.</li> <li>HT/FT Home/Home 1.62: Septemvri away losing at HT 100%.</li> <li>Home/No (Result/BTTS) 1.67: Aligns with BTTS rates and away fail-to-score frequency.</li> <li>Under 3.5 1.50: CSKA home totals low; protects against a rare late third.</li> <li>Anytime Pittas 1.83: Shot volume plus opponent’s away GA.</li> </ul> <h3>Bottom line</h3> <p>Market favoritism is justified, but the better value sits around CSKA’s defensive dominance at home versus Septemvri’s travel woes. A home clean sheet and HT/FT angles are supported by multiple independent indicators. If you want one bet to anchor your card, the home clean sheet at 1.53 is the most statistically coherent position.</p> </div>