Heart Of Midlothian vs Hibernian

<div> <h2>Hearts vs Hibernian: Data, Derby, and the Value Plays</h2> <p>Tynecastle hosts an early-season Edinburgh derby with real stakes. Hearts sit top on form, while Hibernian arrive unbeaten but stuck in a sequence of draws. The markets make Hearts slight favourites (1.92), and the underlying numbers broadly agree.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Hearts have started fast: unbeaten (W5 D1) and off the back of headline results — a 2-0 at Ibrox and a 3-0 home win over Falkirk. They’ve scored in 17 straight competitive matches per recent reports, underlining a consistent attacking threat. Hibs, by contrast, are five league games without a win, but they’ve been stubborn and hard to beat. A 0-0 at Celtic Park shows their defensive ceiling — a reminder that derbies can buck trends.</p> <h3>Why the Home Edge Matters</h3> <p>At Tynecastle, Hearts average 2.33 points and 2.67 goals per game, while conceding only 1.00. Crucially, when they take a lead at home, they keep it — a perfect 100% lead-defending rate. Hibs’ overall lead-defending sits at just 33%, the second-biggest statistical mismatch in this fixture. Add the time-state splits — Hearts are leading 54% of the minutes at home and Hibs are ahead only 36% of the time away — and there’s a clear state-management advantage for the hosts.</p> <h3>Second-Half Storyline</h3> <p>Hearts are distinctly second-half heavy: 67% of their goals arrive after the break, with a notable 76-90 minute punch. Hibs, away from home, haven’t scored after half-time yet this season. That asymmetry shapes some of the best value: Hearts to win the second half (2.25) and Hearts to score in the second half (1.57). Both are supported by robust timing data and recent match flows.</p> <h3>Goals and Game Script</h3> <p>Totals are nuanced. Hearts’ home matches are lively (3.67 total goals per game), Hibs’ away games sit nearer 2.33. Over 2.5 at 1.80 is fair, not spectacular. The more interesting angle is correlation: Hearts to win with Over 2.5 at 2.88 aligns with their high-scoring home wins. Conversely, because Hearts have kept 67% home clean sheets and Hibs have failed to score in 33% of away games, a Hearts clean sheet at 2.80 also carries value — especially in a derby where an early lead lets Hearts’ game management take over.</p> <h3>Key Players and Matchups</h3> <p>Lawrence Shankland remains the headline finisher (four league goals, penalties), and Alexandros Kyziridis is in impactful form with 2G+3A in limited minutes. Yet the sneaky storyline is set pieces: center-back Stuart Findlay has already scored three league goals, and Hibs have struggled defending leads. At 9.50 anytime, Findlay is the long-shot prop with statistical bite in a derby often decided by restarts and aerial duels.</p> <h3>Hibs’ Path</h3> <p>For Hibs, Kieron Bowie (three league goals) provides a direct outlet, while Martin Boyle’s pace remains a counter-threat. They’ve led two of three away matches at half-time and often start brighter than they finish. If Hibs are to flip the script, capitalising early before Hearts’ second-half surge will be key — but sustaining that through 90 minutes has been the issue.</p> <h3>Market Verdict</h3> <ul> <li>Hearts to win (1.92) — justified by superior PPG, defensive control when ahead, and current trajectory.</li> <li>Hearts to score in the second half (1.57) — backed by 6/6 second-half scoring this season.</li> <li>Second-half winner Hearts (2.25) — timing split and Hibs’ 0 away second-half goals support this.</li> <li>Hearts clean sheet (2.80) — venue-specific clean-sheet rate and Hibs’ away FTS profile offer value.</li> </ul> <p>Totals and BTTS are less clear, though “Hearts & Over 2.5” at 2.88 is a correlated way to back the favourite if you expect a more open derby.</p> <h3>Bottom Line</h3> <p>The single most important statistic is Hearts’ 100% lead-defending rate at home. In a derby where first blood often matters, that composure plus a second-half scoring profile tips the balance toward Hearts and frames second-half markets as the strongest ancillary positions.</p> </div>