Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian
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Match Preview
<html> <head><title>Hibernian vs Hearts Preview, Odds & Betting Guide</title></head> <body> <h2>Edinburgh Derby Preview: Hearts’ control meets Hibs’ home punch</h2> <p>Table-topping Heart of Midlothian head across the capital to Easter Road with the Premiership’s best defense and elite game-state control, while Hibernian bring a potent home attack and a raucous festive atmosphere. The Oracle’s numbers frame this as a classic clash of control vs chaos.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Hearts ride a three-game league winning streak, including a statement 2-1 over Rangers. Across 18 matches they’ve posted 2.28 points per game and conceded just 0.78 per game. Hibs sit fifth with 1.39 PPG but score freely at home (2.00 per game), pushing their home total goals to 3.13 on average.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchups</h3> <p>Hearts’ spine is formidable: Craig Halkett and Stuart Findlay lead a back line that deals well with crosses and set plays, while Cameron Devlin and Beni Baningime clamp down the midfield. In attack, Lawrence Shankland remains the focal point, with secondary threats arriving from Stephen Kingsley on overlaps and set-piece deliveries.</p> <p>Hibs will rely on Kieron Bowie’s movement and Martin Boyle’s pace to attack the channels behind Hearts’ fullbacks. Jamie McGrath’s late-arrival runs and set-piece delivery are key to generating quality shots; he’s been productive with 5 league goals. Expect Hibs to press aggressively early, with quick diagonals to isolate Hearts’ fullbacks.</p> <h3>Game State and Goal Timing</h3> <p>If Hearts score first, their away PPG rockets to 3.00 and they defend leads 86% of the time; Hibs’ home PPG when conceding first falls to just 0.50. Data indicates more action after the interval: Hearts score 58% of their goals in the second half (62% away), while Hibs score 56% of their home goals after halftime. That supports second-half-centric markets and live over angles if a slow start unfolds.</p> <h3>Key Duels</h3> <ul> <li>Halkett/Findlay vs Bowie/Boyle: aerial control vs speed in behind. The first long ball that sticks for Hibs could tilt momentum.</li> <li>Devlin/Baningime vs McGrath/Newell: control of second balls and fouls drawn around the box will decide set-piece volume.</li> <li>Shankland vs Hibs CBs: penalty-box occupation and near-post runs; Hibs’ average first conceded minute at home (27) hints at early danger if Hearts start on the front foot.</li> </ul> <h3>Set Pieces and Margins</h3> <p>Hearts’ defenders contribute goals (Findlay, Halkett, Kingsley combine for 8 league goals), giving them an edge on dead balls. Hibs are solid on late set-piece defending at home (only 3 second-half goals conceded), but quality delivery from Dhanda/Kingsley can break tight spells.</p> <h3>Betting Outlook and Odds Moves</h3> <p>Hearts Draw No Bet (1.85) is the sharp anchor. The away side’s superior PPG, elite lead protection, and minimal time spent trailing make them hard to fade in a derby where small details decide outcomes. The total looks a touch light: Over 2.5 at 2.00 is backable given Hibs’ home total profile (3.13) and both teams’ propensity for second-half goals.</p> <p>The “Highest Scoring Half – Second Half” at 2.05 is an attractive derivative, aligning with both teams’ timing splits. For a player angle, Lawrence Shankland anytime at 2.10 combines volume, penalties exposure, and recent form in big fixtures.</p> <h3>Predicted Pattern</h3> <p>Expect an energetic opening, with Hibs probing down the flanks and Hearts showing patience in build-up. As fatigue and space open after the break, Hearts’ structure and Shankland’s movement should generate the higher xG chances. Set pieces may be decisive.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s Lean</h3> <p>Hearts DNB, Over 2.5, Second Half highest scoring, and Shankland to score. Derby nerves can compress early minutes, but the data points to Hearts’ control and a livelier second half.</p> </body> </html>
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