ST Johnstone vs Dunfermline

<h2>St Johnstone vs Dunfermline Athletic: Top meets upwardly mobile in Perth</h2> <p>McDiarmid Park hosts an intriguing early-season Scottish Championship test on Friday night as leaders St Johnstone welcome Dunfermline Athletic. The tone surrounding St Johnstone is transformed after relegation: they have started fast, added smartly in the market, and look every inch automatic promotion contenders. Dunfermline, meanwhile, have ground out results and arrive buoyed by a sensational 5-0 away victory at Arbroath.</p> <h3>Form and context</h3> <p>St Johnstone sit top with 13 points from five, unbeaten and boasting a +10 goal difference (12 scored, 2 conceded). Their last five league results underline both variety and resilience: a 5-1 demolition of Partick Thistle, a late 1-0 at Ross County, a composed 3-0 versus Arbroath, a 1-1 salvage against Morton, and a 2-0 away win at Raith Rovers.</p> <p>Dunfermline are 5th with 8 points. Consistency has been harder to pin down: a goalless draw at Morton, clinical 2-0 versus Airdrieonians, a 2-0 loss at Raith, 2-2 late concession against Ross County, then the eye-catching 5-0 at Arbroath. That last performance was their best attacking display of the campaign, with Andrew (Andy) Tod grabbing headlines.</p> <h3>Tactical shapes and key match-ups</h3> <p>Craig Levein’s St Johnstone have been proactive out of possession and quick in transitions. Summer additions have integrated well: Jamie Gullan’s movement, Stevie Mallan’s set-piece delivery and penalty threat, and Jack Baird’s presence at both ends give the Saints balance. Joshua McPake has been the primary match-turner: five goals in five, including a hat-trick vs Partick and late strikes in tight games, suggest he’s thriving cutting inside and finding space late.</p> <p>For Dunfermline, the 5-0 at Arbroath owed much to verticality and decisiveness in the final third. Andrew Tod’s confidence will be key, with Zak Rudden’s running offering depth. However, their away splits remain stark: two road blanks and a 0% BTTS record in three away games underline how volatile their attack has been on their travels.</p> <h3>Data-driven angles</h3> <ul> <li>Venue split: St Johnstone average 3.00 goals for and 0.67 against at home (2.33 PPG). Dunfermline away: 1.33 PPG, 1.67 GF, 0.67 GA.</li> <li>Defensive conversion: St Johnstone clean sheets in 60% overall; equalizingRate and leadDefendingRate both 100%.</li> <li>Timing profile: St Johnstone are a strong second-half team (58% of goals after half-time; 4 scored 76-90’). Dunfermline have conceded late (two goals in 76-90).</li> <li>BTTS lens: Dunfermline’s away BTTS is 0%; they’ve failed to score in 67% of away games.</li> </ul> <h3>Team news and morale</h3> <p>No fresh injuries or suspensions reported before this match. St Johnstone’s summer intake (Baird, Gullan, Mallan, McAlear, among others) has settled quickly, and fan sentiment is notably positive as the club targets an immediate return to the Premiership. Dunfermline are stable and optimistic, but realistic about the challenge a well-drilled league leader poses away from home.</p> <h3>Odds and value</h3> <p>The market makes St Johnstone rightful favourites (1.65). That implies ~61% win probability. Given home PPG, unbeaten status, and protective metrics (100% lead defense), a fair model could edge them 64–68%, so there’s a sliver of value on the hosts. BTTS No (1.65) also aligns with Dunfermline’s away profile (0% BTTS, 67% away blanks). A home clean sheet at 2.00 is a more aggressive deployment of the same read, paying even money for a scenario that has support from both teams’ early splits.</p> <p>Prop-wise, Joshua McPake at 4.00 anytime looks mispriced against current form: five goals in five and a late-scoring team dynamic increase his chances in a match where St Johnstone should create. If you prefer to boost the main selection, St Johnstone & Over 1.5 at 2.15 is reasonable given their home scoring trend and overall match goal averages.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>St Johnstone’s structure, depth, and home scoring rate should carry them. Dunfermline’s 5-0 at Arbroath demands respect, but their away median still points to inconsistency. Expect the Saints to control large phases, with late insurance possible.</p> <p><strong>Suggested scoreline:</strong> St Johnstone 2-0 Dunfermline.</p>