ST Johnstone vs Ayr Utd
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<html> <head><title>St Johnstone vs Ayr United: Data-Driven Match Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>St Johnstone vs Ayr United: Late-Surge Saints Aim To Extend Lead</h2> <p>Table-topping St Johnstone welcome fifth-placed Ayr United to McDiarmid Park on October 4. Scott Brown’s side have set a blistering early pace (7W, 1D), while Ayr’s mixed but resilient start (2W, 4D, 1L) has kept them in the chasing pack. With both clubs rested for a week, expect a well-prepared, high-intensity contest.</p> <h3>Form and Venue Dynamics</h3> <p>At home, St Johnstone have been excellent: 3-1-0, averaging 2.75 goals scored and only 0.75 conceded. Ayr are unbeaten away (1-2-0) yet draw-prone, netting 1.33 and conceding 1.00 per away match. Saints’ lead-defending at home is a spotless 100%, underlining how well they manage game state once in front. Interestingly, they often have to chase: opponents scored first in 75% of Saints’ home matches—an anomaly for a dominant side.</p> <h3>Timing: Early Ayr, Late Saints</h3> <p>Few matchups telegraph the goal flow quite like this one. Ayr start fast: five of their ten league goals have arrived in the opening quarter-hour; away from home, they’ve struck within the first seven minutes on average. Conversely, St Johnstone reserve their best for the closing stages: 76–90 minutes has produced six of their 18 goals, and at McDiarmid their second-half split is emphatic (GF 7, GA 0). The tactical takeaway: Ayr can land the first punch, but Saints typically own the championship rounds.</p> <h3>Situational Metrics: Why Saints Are Favoured</h3> <p>St Johnstone average 2.75 points per game, nearly double the league average. They take 3.00 PPG when scoring first and a superb 2.33 PPG even when conceding first—reflecting both quality and composure. Ayr, by contrast, have a low lead-defending rate (40% overall; 33% away), a red flag against a side that excels late. That weakness underpins the case for Saints to win second halves and clear 1.5 team goals.</p> <h3>Tactical Notes and Key Players</h3> <p>Brown’s Saints balance vertical threat (Adama Sidibeh) with craft and late surges from Kai Fotheringham and Joshua McPake. McPake, in particular, has a habit of decisive late strikes—recent 83’, 88’ and 89’ goals stand out. Ayr’s attack shares the load: Mark McKenzie, Ethan Walker and Jamie Murphy are live threats, and Curtis Main’s physicality can unsettle defenders even if he hasn’t fully fired in the league yet.</p> <h3>Markets and Value</h3> <ul> <li>Team Total – St Johnstone Over 1.5 at 1.77 looks strong: 2.75 GF at home and 3/4 home matches with 2+ goals.</li> <li>BTTS Yes at 1.77: Saints home BTTS 75% and Ayr away BTTS 67%—numbers outpace price.</li> <li>Second-Half Winner – St Johnstone at 2.10: data aligns with Saints’ late dominance (home 2nd half GF 7, GA 0).</li> <li>Result & BTTS – St Johnstone & Yes at 3.50: more aggressive angle if you fancy Saints’ depth to decide a competitive game.</li> </ul> <h3>Risks and Contradictions</h3> <p>Saints’ 100% home equalizing and lead-defending rates are excellent but may regress slightly; their tendency to concede first at home introduces draw risk, especially against an Ayr side comfortable in stalemates away. That’s why team totals and second-half angles rate better than a pure moneyline for value.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Expect a game with contrasting rhythms: Ayr dangerous early, Saints overwhelming late. The data supports St Johnstone to clear 1.5 goals and control the second half, with BTTS a strong probability. If Ayr draw first blood, in-play markets should swing to Saints—this is a top side that finishes matches with authority.</p> </body> </html>
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