Inverness CT vs Hamilton Academical

<div> <h2>Inverness CT v Hamilton Academical: Top meets challenger in the Highlands</h2> <p>League leaders Inverness welcome fourth-placed Hamilton to the Caledonian Stadium on Saturday, where the division’s most complete home side runs into one of the league’s liveliest attacks. The long December journey north and notoriously testing conditions in Inverness typically accentuate home advantage, and the numbers this season strongly support the hosts.</p> <h3>Form and momentum</h3> <p>Inverness have collected 2.38 points per game at home, winning 6 of 8 and conceding just five times. Their last three at home have all been won to nil, including an emphatic 4-0 against Queen of the South. Over the last eight, Inverness remain the league’s form side (17 points), although their goals against have ticked up slightly versus season averages.</p> <p>Hamilton remain competitive and are third in the last-eight form table (14 points). They’ve shown muscle in attack, averaging 1.94 goals per game overall, and have recent marquee wins (3-0 vs Peterhead, 3-1 vs Kelty Hearts) plus a robust 0-0 away at Stenhousemuir. The warning shot to Inverness? Accies beat them 3-1 in October — but that was in Lanarkshire, not in the Highlands.</p> <h3>Tactical battle and game state</h3> <p>Inverness are exceptionally good at controlling game states. They score first in 88% of home matches and defend those leads 75% of the time, spending just 7% of home minutes trailing. Their second halves at home are particularly authoritative (9-1 goal difference after the break), a product of compact defending, strong set-piece threat, and good in-game management.</p> <p>Hamilton’s away profile is more volatile: they score two per game on their travels and can explode (4-0 at Montrose) but also run into dry spells (0-0 at Stenhousemuir). When Accies concede first away, their points return collapses to 0.33 PPG, which is a problem against a team that customarily lands the opening punch.</p> <h3>Key players and patterns</h3> <p>Accies have a genuine finisher in Oli Shaw, with Kevin O’Hara offering complementary movement and a clinical edge. Kyle MacDonald has chipped in timely goals. For Inverness, the goals are well spread — Zimba’s physicality, Bavidge’s sharp runs, and Wotherspoon’s craft headline a balanced front unit. That distribution of threat is part of why Inverness turn narrow leads into three points and rack up clean sheets.</p> <h3>Numbers to know</h3> <ul> <li>Inverness home clean sheets: 62% (five in eight).</li> <li>Inverness have won to nil in 62.5% of home games.</li> <li>BTTS at Inverness home: only 38%.</li> <li>Hamilton away: 2.00 goals scored per game, but failed to score in 25%.</li> </ul> <h3>What the odds say</h3> <p>Markets make Inverness 1.60 to win — a fair reflection given their home dominance and Hamilton’s drop-off away from home. The value sweet spot lies in the defensive angles: Win to Nil (2.57) and BTTS No (1.91) are supported by Inverness’ elite clean-sheet rate and game-state control. For those who expect a war of attrition, Correct Score 1-0 at 7.00 matches Inverness’ most common home result.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Expect Inverness to dictate, particularly after the interval. Hamilton’s scorers provide threat — and October’s win proves they can hurt Inverness — but the travel, venue dynamics and the hosts’ second-half superiority point to a home win more often than not. The safest angle is the 1x2 on the hosts; the braver play is the win to nil.</p> <p><em>Note: No substantive injury or rotation news was available at the time of writing. Check final line-ups close to kick-off, especially given winter travel and weather in Inverness.</em></p> </div>