Inverness CT vs Peterhead

<div> <h2>Inverness CT v Peterhead: Data Says Defence Wins</h2> <p>At the Caledonian Stadium on Saturday, Inverness Caledonian Thistle host Peterhead in a pivotal League One fixture framed by contrasting venue trends. Inverness’ home numbers are title-contender strong; Peterhead’s away splits are mid-table at best and often brittle after the break. Most neutral previews expect a physical, disciplined encounter decided by Inverness’ control and Peterhead’s resilience in a low block.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Inverness sit in the promotion mix and have been exceptional at home: 2.44 points per game with 78% wins and only 0.56 goals conceded per match. December brought a statement 4–0 over Hamilton and another 4–0 against Queen of the South, bookended by pragmatic 1–0 wins—four straight victories with four straight clean sheets in Inverness.</p> <p>Peterhead arrive mid-table with a thin squad, and their recent run has oscillated between gritty edges and heavy defeats. A 0–4 home loss to Cove stung, even if preceded by a useful 1–0 away win at East Fife. Away from home, their profile is stark: 0.78 goals scored, 2.22 conceded, and 44% of trips ending without a goal.</p> <h3>Tactical Themes</h3> <p>Inverness are set to use a 4‑2‑3‑1/4‑3‑3 hybrid, building territory through wide combinations and set-piece quality. Expect David Wotherspoon between the lines and Liam Sole a regular ball progressor; Zimba and Bavidge have contributed timely goals. The back four is conservative in rest defence, reflecting their excellent goals-against column at home.</p> <p>Peterhead’s 4‑5‑1 will compress spaces and attack via direct transitions and dead balls. The aim is to frustrate, manage the crowd, and turn chaos into opportunity. The problem is the second half: away from home they’ve conceded 10 times after the interval, including seven between minutes 46–60. Inverness, by contrast, have scored 11 second-half home goals while conceding just once.</p> <h3>Key Numbers to Know</h3> <ul> <li>Inverness home clean sheets: 67%. Peterhead failed to score away: 44%.</li> <li>Second-half split: Inverness home 2H 11–1; Peterhead away 2H 2–10.</li> <li>Inverness scored first in 89% of home games; Peterhead conceded first in 78% of away games.</li> <li>Head-to-head direction: Inverness won 1–0 away in October and 2–0 at home in August in this campaign.</li> </ul> <h3>Market View and Value</h3> <p>Bookmakers make Inverness short at 1.36 for the win. The sharper angles lean into defensive dominance: Home Clean Sheet around 2.00 and Win to Nil 2.25 are supported by both venue splits and recent trends. With Peterhead’s second-half fade, Home to win the second half at 1.73 is also well-priced.</p> <p>There’s public bias toward goals because Peterhead’s season-long totals skew high, but that’s largely due to concessions. The specific matchup—with Inverness controlling at home and shutting down transitions—points more to a controlled clean-sheet victory than a shootout. That aligns with Home & Under 2.5 at 3.75 and the correct-score 2–0 at 6.50.</p> <h3>Red Flags and What Could Go Wrong</h3> <p>Inverness are coming off two away defeats, and the festive schedule can sap sharpness. If finishing is wasteful or Peterhead grab a set-piece moment, some bets tighten. However, Inverness’ home process—chance control, early leads, and elite game state management—remains the most reliable profile in the division.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>The data points toward an Inverness victory built on defensive control and a stronger second half. Peterhead’s best route is a stubborn first 45 minutes and set pieces; Inverness’ structure and bench depth should tell after the break.</p> <p><strong>Verdict:</strong> Inverness 2–0 Peterhead. Best angles: Home Clean Sheet, Home 2nd Half, Win to Nil; sprinkle 2–0 correct score.</p> </div>