Levadiakos vs Larisa
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<html> <head><title>Levadiakos vs Larisa - Match Preview & Betting Analysis</title></head> <body> <h2>Levadiakos vs Larisa: Form, Trends, and Value Bets</h2> <p>Levadiakos enter the weekend sitting fourth with 22 points from 13 matches, while Larisa are in a relegation fight on eight points. The gulf in form and underlying numbers is stark: Levadiakos trend upward with 1.88 PPG across their last eight, while Larisa slide to 0.50, conceding 2.25 goals per game in that span.</p> <h3>Home Fortress vs Road Struggles</h3> <p>At Levadia, the hosts play with aggression and vertical speed, averaging 3.00 goals for and 1.29 against—home matches average a hefty 4.29 total goals. They’ve posted four wins at home, three by multiple goals (6-0, 5-2, 4-0). Larisa’s away return is meagre (0.83 PPG), with half their away minutes spent trailing and just 10% spent in the lead. This was reflected in November when Levadiakos won 2-0 in Larisa, a clean tactical job built on early pressure and efficient chance use.</p> <h3>First-Half Dynamics Favour Levadiakos</h3> <p>Few matchups scream early edge like this one. Levadiakos’ average minute of the first goal at home is the 8th minute, while Larisa’s average minute conceded first sits at 24. The visitors have been down at the break in 62% of their league matches (67% away). Levadiakos lead at the half at home in 43% of fixtures and have the gears to accelerate from there; their second-half production accounts for 58% of their goals.</p> <h3>Tactical Battle</h3> <p>Levadiakos blend direct wide service with penalty-box presence. Alen Ozbolt (7 in 802 minutes) has been the primary finisher, with Fabricio Pedrozo adding a powerful, penalty-capable foil. Sebastián Palacios supplies width and crosses (5 assists). In midfield, Enis Çokaj’s ball-winning and distribution (7.23 rating, 764 passes) stabilize transitions, allowing fullbacks to push on. Larisa lean on Jani Atanasov’s passing range and Facundo Pérez’s direct runs; Giannis Pasas provides penalty threat, but open-play volume remains thin. Defensive discipline is a concern: Larisa’s back line features multiple yellow-card risks and struggles to defend sustained pressure.</p> <h3>Set Pieces and Late Moments</h3> <p>Levadiakos are dangerous from set plays and have won several penalties this season; Larisa concede in bursts and struggle to close halves cleanly. The 76–90 minute window is lively for the hosts (8 goals), while Larisa are brittle late on both ends. Expect substitutions to tilt further toward Levadiakos, who carry superior bench production (Pedrozo and Verbič can change rhythm).</p> <h3>Numbers vs Market</h3> <ul> <li>Asian Handicap Levadiakos -1 (1.62): Levadiakos’ home profile and Larisa’s situational splits (0.30 ppg when conceding first) justify a fair price closer to 1.55–1.58. Small but real value.</li> <li>First Half Levadiakos (1.85): With Larisa losing the first half in two-thirds of away matches and Levadiakos among the quickest starters, the implied probability (~54%) looks a shade low.</li> <li>Over 2.5 Goals (1.80): Levadiakos home matches go over 2.5 at 71%, with a team total 4.29. Even accounting for a slightly lower-tempo Super League average, 1.80 is playable.</li> <li>Anytime Scorer – Alen Ozbolt (2.00): Given rate (~0.79/90) and opponent’s concession profile, 2.00 is reasonable value assuming a start.</li> </ul> <h3>Projected XIs</h3> <p><strong>Levadiakos (4-2-3-1):</strong> Lodygin; Vichos, Liagas, Tsapras, Abu Hanna; Çokaj, Kosti; Palacios, Balzi, Pedrozo; Ozbolt.</p> <p><strong>Larisa (4-2-3-1):</strong> Melissas; Deligiannidis, Chakla, Pantelakis, Ouattara; Atanasov, Staikos; Pérez, Warda/Chatzistravos, Pasas; Tupta.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s Verdict</h3> <p>Levadiakos’ home scoring power and Larisa’s early-half fragility point to a straightforward home win with a strong chance of margin. The first-half market and the -1 line both hold value; totals lean over due to the hosts’ aggressive profile and Larisa’s defensive regression.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p><strong>Levadiakos 3–0 Larisa</strong> (with a live chance of 3–1 if Larisa grab a set-piece or penalty).</p> </body> </html>
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