Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük
Match Information
Match Preview
<html> <head><title>Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük: Data-Led Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Form and Context</h2> <p>Samsunspor return to the Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu looking to consolidate a steady start against a Fatih Karagümrük side still searching for stability. The hosts sit in the top half after five rounds, reflecting a sturdy defensive platform and enough moments of quality in attack. Karagümrük, by contrast, are down in the bottom three on current form, with a sequence that includes three straight home defeats to nil and just one win—an away upset at Antalyaspor.</p> <h2>Tactical Snapshot</h2> <p>Samsunspor have been compact, with a central pairing of Ľubomír Šatka and Rick van Drongelen fronting a back line that’s conceded just 0.80 goals per game. They build through Olivier Ntcham’s progression and look to the front line of Marius Mouandilmadji and Carlo Holse for penalty-area presence and late runs. The timing data backs that approach: 80% of Samsun’s goals arrive after the interval, with a skew towards the final quarter-hour.</p> <p>Karagümrük’s rebuild has yet to click. Daniel Johnson has been their most incisive midfielder (1G+1A), but the forwards’ shot volume has been thin and the team’s patterns show a worrying tendency to concede first—100% of their league matches so far. Away from home they oscillate between resilience and collapse; a 2-1 win at Antalyaspor shows a counterpunch, but 3-0 defeat at Galatasaray exposed structural issues in defensive transitions.</p> <h2>Key Match-Ups</h2> <ul> <li><strong>Mouandilmadji vs Karagümrük centre-backs:</strong> The Chadian striker’s 7 shots on target from 9 attempts plus penalty duty make him a constant penalty-box threat; Karagümrük concede two per game on the road.</li> <li><strong>Holse’s drifting runs vs full-backs:</strong> Holse has chipped in with two goals and offers intelligent movement between lines; his anytime price has appeal given the visitors’ late-game fatigue indicators.</li> <li><strong>Set-pieces and second phases:</strong> With Balkovec and Johnson delivering for Karagümrük, dead balls are one of their clearest attacking paths; Samsun’s aerial pairing must remain sharp.</li> </ul> <h2>Numbers That Matter</h2> <ul> <li><strong>Lead dynamics:</strong> Samsun defend a lead at 100% so far; Karagümrük equalize just 20% of the time. If the hosts strike first, they are heavy favorites to see it out.</li> <li><strong>Goal timing:</strong> Samsun’s average minute scored is 65; Karagümrük concede heavily between 61–75 minutes. Expect late pressure from the hosts.</li> <li><strong>Attacking output:</strong> Karagümrük average 0.40 goals per game and failed to score in 80% of matches (50% away). Samsun’s overall defensive record (0.80 GA) supports a home clean-sheet angle.</li> <li><strong>Totals profile:</strong> Karagümrük away have been high variance (100% over 2.5), while Samsun home has been mixed (67% over 2.5). A 2-0 or 2-1 type outcome is most consistent with the splits.</li> </ul> <h2>Projected Line-Ups</h2> <p><strong>Samsunspor (4-2-3-1):</strong> Kocuk; Yavru, Satka, Van Drongelen, Tomasson; Ntcham, Ç. Yüksel (or Makoumbou); Kılınç, Holse, Muja; Mouandilmadji.</p> <p><strong>Fatih Karagümrük (4-2-3-1):</strong> Grbić; Kadioğlu, Çınar, Balkovec, Kurukalıp; Çankaya, Johnson; Kalaycı, Serginho, Tarık Kalpaklı; Çukur.</p> <h2>Market Perspective</h2> <p>Bookmakers rate the hosts at 1.53 for the win—short but justified: superior PPG, markedly better defensive metrics, and the visitors’ extraordinary trend of conceding first. For punters seeking better value, second-half angles are attractive. Samsun are a late-scoring side; Karagümrük concede late and spend 54% of time trailing. “Second-Half Winner: Samsun” at 1.85 and “Highest-scoring Half: Second” near the 2.05 mark align tightly with the timing data.</p> <p>On the props front, Carlo Holse at 3.00 anytime is eye-catching given two goals already and favorable matchup indicators. If you prefer a safer derivative, “Karagümrük under 0.5 goals” at 2.20 mirrors their 80% fail-to-score trend, though note it conflicts with an over-focused stance; shape your portfolio accordingly (e.g., pair Home Win with Clean Sheet rather than with Overs).</p> <h2>Prediction</h2> <p>Samsunspor 2-0 Karagümrük. The hosts’ structure, late-game trends, and the visitors’ scoring droughts point to a professional home win with second-half separation.</p> </body> </html>
Betting Odds
Odds are currently unavailable.
Odds are provided for informational purposes. Please gamble responsibly.
AI Analysis & Predictions
Get comprehensive AI-powered analysis for this match with our advanced prediction models. Our AI considers team form, head-to-head records, player statistics, and real-time data to provide accurate insights.
- Real-time match predictions
- In-depth statistical analysis
- Live odds monitoring
- Expert betting insights