Alanyaspor vs Kasimpasa
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<html> <head> <title>Alanyaspor vs Kasimpasa – Tactical Preview, Odds and Betting Insight</title> <meta name="description" content="Alanyaspor host Kasimpasa in the Süper Lig with a defensive edge and value angles on low totals. Team news, tactics, and best bets from The Oracle." /> </head> <body> <h2>Alanyaspor vs Kasimpasa: Defensive Edge Meets Creativity Crunch</h2> <p>Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadium sets the stage for a tense Süper Lig encounter as Alanyaspor welcome Kasimpasa. The hosts sit mid-table after a draw-heavy start, while the visitors arrive in a five-match winless rut, undermined further by the absence of their chief creator Haris Hajradinovic.</p> <h3>Team News and Availability</h3> <ul> <li>Alanyaspor: Buluthan Bulut (ACL) remains sidelined; Steve Mounié (knee) is still out, limiting center-forward options. Defensive core intact.</li> <li>Kasimpasa: Haris Hajradinovic is out, a major blow to ball progression and set-piece quality. Ben Ouanes remains the main supply line from the left, while Pape Habib Gueye provides the focal point up front.</li> </ul> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Alanyaspor’s season has been built on rigidity: just 0.6 goals scored and 0.2 conceded per home game, with a remarkable 80% clean sheet rate at their ground. They’ve kept things tight and tidy, recording 100% under 2.5 goals at home to date. Kasimpasa have been erratic away—capable of a result on their day—but struggled for consistency, with just two wins in six trips and no win in their last five overall.</p> <h3>Tactical Match-up</h3> <p>Expect Alanyaspor to keep a compact mid-block, lean on the Lima–Aliti–Akdağ triangle, and trust goalkeeper Ertuğrul Taşkıran (7.22 rating) to manage Kasimpasa’s limited threat. Without Hajradinovic’s incisive passing between the lines, Kasimpasa will rely on wide service from Mortadha Ben Ouanes and overlaps from Cláudio Winck, who has chipped in with three league goals. However, Alanyaspor are excellent at defending the box and game state: when they take the lead at home, they have defended it 100% of the time this season.</p> <h3>Goal Timing and Game Flow</h3> <p>The opening exchanges should be cagey. Alanyaspor’s home games skew toward late action—their average minute of first goal scored at home is minute 68—while Kasimpasa are among the league’s slowest starters, conceding five goals in the opening 15 minutes league-wide and rarely scoring first (17%). The first half has a realistic path to finish goalless before Alanya incrementally raise the pressure after the interval.</p> <h3>Key Duels</h3> <ul> <li>Pape Habib Gueye vs Nuno Lima/Fidan Aliti: Aerial and hold-up duels likely favour Alanyaspor’s CBs, especially with limited creative feeding from midfield.</li> <li>Ben Ouanes vs Hadergjonaj: The Tunisian’s supply line is Kasimpasa’s best avenue; disrupting the left-sided crosses will be pivotal for the hosts.</li> <li>Ogundu/Kaya vs Opoku/Szalai: If Alanyaspor can isolate their young wide forwards against Kasimpasa’s centre-backs in transition, the narrow margin may come from a single moment.</li> </ul> <h3>Market View and Value</h3> <p>Public bettors often gravitate to BTTS and overs in the Süper Lig, but the data screams the other way here. Alanyaspor have produced under 2.5 in 100% of home matches with just one goal conceded in five. That dovetails with Kasimpasa’s creative shortage. “Away team to score – No” around 2.70 and “Home clean sheet – Yes” at 2.75 are mispriced in view of the hosts’ venue-specific outlier on defense. Under 2.5 at 1.90 remains a core angle with a solid edge.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s Prediction</h3> <p>In mild, calm Alanya conditions, expect a war of attrition with late separation. The Oracle projects a disciplined Alanyaspor performance, low chance volume, and a narrow home success.</p> <p><strong>Pick:</strong> Alanyaspor 1-0 Kasimpasa</p> </body> </html>
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