Sarıyer vs Pendikspor

<div> <h2>Sarıyer vs Pendikspor: Data Says Late Drama</h2> <p>Yusuf Ziya Öniş Stadium hosts a contrasting 1. Lig matchup as 19th-placed Sarıyer welcome 8th-placed Pendikspor. With little injury noise and stable lineups expected, the story looks statistical: Pendik’s buoyant second halves against Sarıyer’s late-conceding profile.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Sarıyer are winless (PPG 0.20), scoring just 0.60 per game and conceding 1.60. They’ve conceded first in 100% of their matches and collect just 0.20 PPG when that happens. Pendik, meanwhile, sit mid-table with 1.60 PPG, buoyed by a dynamic attack (1.80 goals per game) and strong game-state metrics: a 100% lead-defending rate and a 75% equalizing rate point to resilience and control when it matters.</p> <h3>Tactical Patterns and Goal Timing</h3> <p>Expect the decisive phases after the interval. Pendik score 78% of their goals in the second half (7 of 9), while Sarıyer concede 62% of theirs after the break, including 3 in the 76–90 segment. That’s a classic recipe for late swings. Pendik’s away splits reinforce this: an average goals-for of 1.67 and a 100% BTTS rate on the road. Even when they’ve started slowly (away average minute conceded first: 24), they surge late — equalizing and then finishing strong.</p> <h3>Key Matchups</h3> <p>Mallik Wilks (2G, 2A) and Jonson Clarke-Harris (2G) headline Pendik’s forward thrust, supported by Mesut Özdemir (7.22 rating; 306 passes; 12 tackles) in midfield control. Right-back Stelios Kitsiou has chipped in with two goals and heavy defensive output (18 tackles), making the right flank a two-way weapon. For Sarıyer, Papis Malaly Dembélé’s two goals and Khouma Babacar’s presence are crucial outlets; Papy Djilobodji anchors a defense still seeking its first clean sheet.</p> <h3>Venue Split and What It Means</h3> <p>Sarıyer’s home numbers are lean (GF 0.50/GA 1.50), with one 1-1 and one 0-2. Pendik’s away slate has been lively: 1-1, 3-3, and 2-1 (loss), averaging 3.67 total goals and 67% over 2.5. The venue contrast (Sarıyer unders at home vs Pendik overs away) suggests the safer angle is to focus on the second half and BTTS rather than pre-match full-time totals alone.</p> <h3>Likely XIs</h3> <p><strong>Sarıyer (probable):</strong> Uysal; Mert, Djilobodji, Korkmazoğlu, Ö. Bayram; Traoré, Anziani; Urie, Dembélé; Babacar plus one of Koç/Aydoğmuş for width.<br/> <strong>Pendikspor (probable):</strong> Utku Yuvakuran; Kitsiou, Soldo, Yiğit Fidan, Sequeira; Özdemir, Denić; Karadeniz/Yeşil; Wilks, Clarke-Harris with Thuram impact off the bench.</p> <h3>Market Outlook</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Pendik DNB (+0) @ 2.02:</strong> Better team by results and game-state metrics; covers the draw versus a conservative home side.</li> <li><strong>Second Half Over 1.5 @ 2.00:</strong> Pendik’s late scoring and Sarıyer’s late concessions align; odds imply 50% but data leans higher.</li> <li><strong>BTTS Yes @ 1.65:</strong> Pendik away BTTS is 100%; Sarıyer’s clean sheet rate is 0%.</li> <li><strong>Over 2.5 @ 1.85:</strong> Pendik’s away totals are elevated; variance is the risk given Sarıyer’s low-output home sample.</li> </ul> <h3>What Could Swing It</h3> <p>Set pieces and wide overloads. Kitsiou’s raids can pin back Sarıyer’s left side, creating cut-back chances for Clarke-Harris. If Sarıyer nick the opener (despite their 0% scored-first rate so far), Pendik’s 75% equalizing tendency keeps the away side in the game — another reason to like DNB and second-half goals.</p> <h3>Weather and Intangibles</h3> <p>Fine early-autumn conditions (around 21°C) should suit Pendik’s high-tempo second-half push and Sarıyer’s counter moments via Dembélé. With fan sentiment and H2H narrative leaning away, psychology favors Pendik avoiding defeat.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Pendik to avoid defeat feels the core angle, with the game likely opening after halftime. The statistical backbone points to second-half goals and a strong BTTS lean. For a small-stake longshot, 1-2 Pendik fits the flow.</p> </div>