Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor

<div> <h2>Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor: Form, Edges and Value Picks</h2> <p>The Oracle sizes up a clash between a struggling host and a resolute traveler. Ümraniyespor’s slide continues with three straight defeats, while Sivasspor arrive unbeaten in their last seven to eight, powered by a defense that has tightened considerably through October.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Ümraniyespor sit 18th with 8 points from 11, averaging just 0.64 goals per game. Their last eight show a drop to 0.50 PPG and 1.88 GA, a sign the defensive leaks are worsening. Sivasspor, 14th with 12 points, clock 1.38 PPG over the last eight and a stingy 0.38 GA, including three consecutive 0-0 away results. The away split is stark: Sivasspor average 0.5 goals for and 1.33 against on the road, failing to score in two-thirds of their away fixtures.</p> <h3>Tactical Match-up and Goal Flow</h3> <p>Expect a slow-burn. Sivasspor’s scoring profile is heavily second-half weighted (91% of goals after the break), with an average scoring minute of 71 overall and 83 away. First halves away are barren: 0-0 in five of six. Ümraniyespor concede later than average, with 76-90 minutes their softest segment. That blend suggests a cagey opening, possibly loosening after the hour if anyone blinks.</p> <h3>Venue Dynamics</h3> <p>Ümraniyespor’s home numbers are poor (0.83 PPG, 0.83 GF, 1.50 GA), and they have yet to keep a home clean sheet. Curiously, home BTTS sits at 67%, but this comes against the grain of Sivasspor’s away profile (BTTS 33%, 50% clean sheets away). The Sivas defense, organized by Uğur Çiftçi and Okan Erdoğan in front of the in-form Ali Şaşal Vural, has excelled at protecting stalemates.</p> <h3>Key Players</h3> <p>For Sivasspor, Turaç Böke (4 goals) and Daniel Avramovski (brace vs Adana Demirspor) are the most likely threats, but away creativity has been limited. Vural’s goalkeeping (7.16 rating, 55% clean sheets) is arguably their biggest asset on the road. Ümraniyespor lean on Bernardo Sousa (2 goals, 2 assists) and Batuhan Çelik (2 goals). Tomislav Glumac is a set-piece outlet and leads the back line, but the team’s first goal timing (avg 49’) and low “scored first” rate (18%) point to slow starts.</p> <h3>What the Odds Say</h3> <p>Books make Sivasspor 1.70 to win; The Oracle notes their away win count is zero so far, with 50% away games ending 0-0 and 50% ending draws. That inflates the value of alternatives. Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 looks underpriced given Sivas away Over 2.5 hits just 33%, and Ümraniyespor home Over 2.5 is also 33%. The most pronounced misprice is the first-half Under 0.5 at 3.00, with Sivas away 0-0 at HT in 83% of trips. Additionally, Sivasspor team total Under 1.0 at 3.30 leverages their 67% away failed-to-score rate with push protection if they net one.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s Angle</h3> <p>This is a matchup where market bias towards the stronger overall form (Sivasspor) overlooks their away style: risk-averse, compact, and content to grind. The value sits with unders, first-half stasis, and draw protection. If weather turns damp and the pitch zips, it likely reinforces the low-total angle rather than opens the game, given both sides’ reluctance in transition.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Primary lean: Under 2.5 Goals. Secondary leans: First-half Under 0.5, Sivasspor TT Under 1.0, and Draw. A 0-0 or 1-1 feels most plausible; the correct-score flyer at 0-0 (9.00) aligns with Sivas’ away trend.</p> </div>