HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo

<div> <h2>Gorica vs Slaven Belupo: Form, Injuries and Markets Explored</h2> <p>Gradski stadion Velika Gorica hosts an intriguing HNL clash as Gorica welcome Slaven Belupo. The data paints a nuanced picture: Gorica have yet to play at home this season, but they arrive buoyed by a 2-1 win at Dinamo Zagreb. Slaven, fifth last season and winners of their last four head-to-heads with Gorica (including a 4-0), travel with confidence yet carry worrying away splits and a trimmed midfield due to injuries.</p> <h3>Current Form and Momentum</h3> <p>Gorica’s start has been steady (1.33 PPG), culminating in a statement victory away to Dinamo. Iker Pozo has been a standout, combining ball-winning (17 tackles) with end product (2 goals), while Jurica Pršir’s 10 key passes hint at a functional creative axis. Slaven (1.50 PPG) come in off back-to-back wins and have found key contributors in Josip Mitrović (2 goals) and Mihail Caimacov, with Adriano Jagušić creating a steady flow of chances.</p> <h3>Injuries and Selection Notes</h3> <p>Slaven’s depth is tested: Antonio Jakir, Filip Krušelj and Ljuban Crepulja are out, removing rotation flexibility and some ball progression in the middle third. Gorica report a clean bill of health and should keep their winning core; goalkeeper Davor Matijaš (20 saves) is in strong shot-stopping form.</p> <h3>Key Tactical Pattern: The Second-Half Tilt</h3> <p>The single biggest signal is Slaven Belupo’s away concession pattern: all six of their away goals conceded have arrived in the second half, with four shipped between 76 and 90 minutes. Gorica’s profile supports a late surge—50% of their goals come after the break, while 75% of their concessions also sit in the second half, implying the game’s tempo and scoring are most likely to rise late.</p> <h3>First-Half Caution, Late Drama</h3> <p>Slaven’s halftime numbers are remarkably stable: 67% of their matches are level at the interval (67% away), consistent with a cautious opening. That dovetails with value on the First-Half Draw market. After the interval, Slaven’s away back line becomes vulnerable, reflected in very late concessions and a 2.00 GA average on the road.</p> <h3>Head-to-Head vs Live Form</h3> <p>Yes, Slaven have dominated this matchup recently (four straight wins, last a 4-0), but H2H can lag current context. This year’s splits suggest regression potential: Slaven rarely score first (17% overall; 33% away) and have a 0% away equalizing rate. If Gorica strike first—as the 2.00 “Home to score first” price implies—the travel side’s profile suggests limited comeback threat. Gorica’s confidence after Dinamo and a full squad tilt the risk-reward toward the hosts on Draw No Bet.</p> <h3>Markets to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Gorica DNB (1.80): Leans into Slaven’s away struggles and injury list while guarding against the H2H hoodoo.</li> <li>Highest Scoring Half – 2nd (2.05): Matches both teams’ timing distributions; Slaven away 2H concessions are extreme.</li> <li>First Half – Draw (2.00): Slaven’s 67% HT draws overall/away make this price appealing.</li> <li>Gorica 2H Team Goals Over 0.5 (1.80): A direct play on Slaven’s late-away leakage.</li> </ul> <h3>Projected Flow and Players to Watch</h3> <p>Expect a measured first half—Jagusić and Agbekpornu trying to control central zones for Slaven—before Gorica find more joy in transition after the break. Pozo’s box-to-box energy and Pršir’s progressive passing can pry open Slaven’s tiring back line, while Mitrović’s movement remains Slaven’s outlet if they can spring counters. Matijaš vs Hadžikić could be decisive in the final quarter-hour.</p> <h3>Score Lean and Final Word</h3> <p>Given the HT draw trend and Slaven’s late concessions, a 1-1 draw (5.25) is a live longshot in the correct score market. However, with Gorica carrying the stronger momentum and a healthier squad, the safer value sits with Gorica DNB and second-half-centric angles. Stake sensibly—early season and Gorica’s lack of home sample warrant moderation—but the market prices appear to underrate the hosts and the timing splits.</p> </div>