HNK Gorica vs NK Osijek

<div> <h2>Gorica vs Osijek: Data says “fade the favourite”</h2> <p><strong>Kick-off:</strong> 28 Sept 2025, 14:00 UTC</p> <p><strong>Note on venue:</strong> External listings mention Opus Arena (Osijek), while the dataset frames Gorica as the home side. This matters for pricing; treat the below with that caveat and verify the final venue near kick-off.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Through seven rounds, Gorica sit 4th on 11 points, performing above the league average in points and goals per game. Osijek are 8th on six points and, despite a 4–0 home bounce versus Vukovar, they slid back with a 2–1 loss at Istra. Last season’s struggles still weigh on sentiment: Osijek’s fanbase expects an uptick after finishing 9th, while Gorica’s late escape cultivated a more optimistic outlook.</p> <h3>What the numbers really say</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Gorica superiority:</strong> PPG 1.57 vs Osijek 0.86; time leading 38% vs 19%.</li> <li><strong>Lead protection vs collapse:</strong> Gorica’s lead-defending rate sits above league average. Osijek’s is just 33% overall and 0% away — both away leads were surrendered.</li> <li><strong>When goals arrive:</strong> Gorica average their first goal at 22’. Osijek concede late (average conceded minute 65), and a huge 86% of Osijek’s goals against come after half-time.</li> <li><strong>BTTS profile:</strong> Gorica’s BTTS rate is 71% (home 100% from one sample). Osijek away BTTS hits 67% — a compelling overlay to a market pricing BTTS Yes at 1.82.</li> </ul> <h3>Tactical picture</h3> <p>Gorica’s shape has stabilized with Matijaš in goal, Čabraja providing thrust from left-back, and a midfield three featuring Pršir and the increasingly influential Iker Pozo (2 goals, strong duel and tackle numbers). Ante Kavelj stretches play, while young forward Filip Čuić does a lot of the physical work up front.</p> <p>Osijek’s back line of Mkrtchyan–Hasić–Bukvić plus Renan Guedes has decent duels data but struggles under pressure late on. In midfield, Babec and Vrbančić circulate possession effectively, and Nail Omerović is the clear attacking reference — 4 goals across his last three matches, with the pace to attack transitions. Marko Malenica’s shot-stopping has kept scores respectable, but protection falters after the break.</p> <h3>Key matchups</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Čabraja vs Guedes:</strong> Čabraja’s progressive carries and blocks (rating 7.3) vs Osijek’s right-side will define Gorica’s territorial gains.</li> <li><strong>Pozo/Pršir vs Babec/Vrbančić:</strong> If Gorica’s midfield wins second balls, Osijek’s 2H fragility is again exposed.</li> <li><strong>Omerović vs Gorica CBs:</strong> In-form finisher; Gorica have no clean sheets yet — expect Omerović chances, especially between 31–45’ where Osijek have scored 4.</li> </ul> <h3>Market view vs reality</h3> <p>The consolidated odds oddly make the “Away” side a strong favourite (1.64) despite the data-weighted case for Gorica not to lose. That creates value on Draw/Home double chance at 2.06, Home over 0.5 at 1.57, and BTTS Yes at 1.82. A late-goals angle is supported by both teams’ second-half profiles and is paid at 2.10 for Over 1.5 in the second half.</p> <h3>Score and staking</h3> <p>A 1–1 correct score at 5.20 fits the median totals and Osijek’s draw-heavy away split (67%). Given the early-season sample size, avoid overexposure; weight more to double chance and BTTS, then a smaller slice on second-half over and the 1–1.</p> <h3>Final word</h3> <p>Unless late team news flips the matchup or the venue discrepancy resolves toward a genuine Osijek advantage, the value spots are squarely on Gorica not to lose, both teams to score, and late-goal dynamics. Watch in-play: if Osijek take an early lead, history points to opposing them — their away lead retention has been 0%.</p> </div>