NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka
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<html> <head><title>Slaven Belupo vs Rijeka – Data-Led Match Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka: Form, Numbers, and Angles</h2> <p>Gradski stadion Ivan Kušek Apaš in Koprivnica hosts a quietly pivotal HNL clash between two sides with contrasting pressures. Slaven Belupo’s home form has been a stabilizing force this term, while Rijeka arrive with higher expectations and the weight of recent inconsistency. Kick-off is set for 13:30 UTC on October 18, 2025.</p> <h3>Table Context and Momentum</h3> <p>Belupo sit 6th with 12 points, Rijeka 8th with 10. Belupo’s trajectory over the last eight league matches shows a positive drift (+12.8% points per game), punctuated by a 2–1 victory over Osijek. Rijeka’s last eight, by contrast, trend lower (-20.7% PPG), though a 3–1 away win at Gorica suggests some course correction.</p> <h3>Home vs Away: Where the Match Tilts</h3> <ul> <li>Belupo at home: 3 wins from 4, 2.25 PPG, 2.0 GF and 1.25 GA per game. Notably, every home match hit Over 2.5 and saw BTTS.</li> <li>Rijeka away: 1.25 PPG with 1.75 GF and 1.5 GA. Their away fixtures average 3.25 total goals; 75% Over 2.5 and 75% BTTS.</li> </ul> <p>These splits alone frame a match that should open up. Belupo’s stadium has consistently produced goals, while Rijeka’s away profile spikes volatility.</p> <h3>Game State Patterns: Why Late Goals Loom</h3> <p>The hidden engine of this fixture is how each side handles leads and adversity. Rijeka score first away 75% of the time, but their lead defending rate is just 20% on the road. Belupo’s home equalizing rate is a robust 67%, and when they concede first at home their points per game is 2.0. Put simply: Rijeka start fast; Belupo come back. Expect a see-saw rhythm and live volatility in the second half.</p> <h3>Timing Windows</h3> <ul> <li>Belupo’s late push: 76–90’ at home (GF 4, GA 1). They finish strong in front of their supporters.</li> <li>Rijeka’s early thrust away: 16–30’ is their prime scoring slice, but they concede more after the break (67% of away GA in 2nd half).</li> </ul> <p>The clock profile supports second-half goals and a general overs leaning.</p> <h3>Key Players to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Slaven Belupo: Josip Mitrović (3G) is the primary finisher; Michael Agbekpornu’s ball-winning and energy underpin transitions; Mihail Caimacov can carry play through midfield pressure.</li> <li>HNK Rijeka: Toni Fruk’s creativity and dribbling are central to chance creation; Stjepan Radeljić organizes the back line, with Mladen Devetak offering width but sometimes leaving space in transitions; Martin Zlomislić has been dependable in goal but faces volume.</li> </ul> <h3>Tactics Board</h3> <p>Rijeka should assert early control, pressing Belupo’s double pivot to feed Fruk between the lines. But Rijeka’s tendency to drift defensively after the interval invites Belupo’s wing and half-space surges late, particularly with the crowd behind them. Belupo will accept transitions and target late-arriving runners, a pattern seen in their 76–90’ output.</p> <h3>Market View and Where the Value Lies</h3> <p>Bookmakers price Rijeka as favorites on name and squad quality, but the statistical canvas strongly favors goals-based bets. With Belupo’s home games 100% Over 2.5/BTTS and Rijeka away at 75% for both, Over 2.5 around 1.91 and BTTS near 1.67 offer clear edges. Given Rijeka’s 75% “score first” away and Belupo’s 75% “opponent scored first” at home, the away first-goal angle is priced attractively too. For bigger odds, 2–2 aligns with the data and Rijeka’s lead-protection issues.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Expect a high-tempo, momentum-swapping contest. Rijeka may strike first, but Belupo’s late-game pattern and home resilience should keep this alive deep into the second half. Goals—and both sides contributing—remain the sharpest angle.</p> </body> </html>
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